NYSE: MSA · Security & Protection Services
MSA Safety (MSA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MSA Safety (MSA) at $190.93 a share. The stock last closed at $169.99, which puts the model's fair value 12.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. MSA Safety Incorporated.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $194.09 to $190.93 (-1.6%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $169.99 is 12.3% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 7% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MSA?
The calibrated range for MSA over 63 trading days is $157.45 to $186.77. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MSA's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $115.67 to $303.98. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
MSA Safety Incorporated is a prominent global manufacturer and provider of safety equipment. It engineers, produces and distributes solutions that safeguard personnel and critical infrastructure.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $190.93 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $194.09, so the fair value moved -1.6%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $164.68 to $194.86, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 69 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 18.8% against a peer median of 11.9%. Growth quality scores 39, with trailing revenue growth of 3.7% against a peer median of 10.3%. Stability scores 16, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 5.9 pts against a peer median of 1.2 pts. The model compares the company with ADT Inc., The Brink's Company, Brady Corporation, The GEO Group, Inc. and CoreCivic, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MSA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
MSA Safety's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MSA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.4% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 MSA moved 4.3% in one session, against the 1.6% a day that options had priced: 2.7 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MSA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MSA
How does MSA score on business quality?
MSA Safety's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 18.8%ROIC | 11.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 76 | 1.13xFCF / net income | 1.18x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 39 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 66 | 1.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 79 | 0.85xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 16 | 5.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does MSA compare with similar companies?
The companies in security & protection services closest to MSA Safety in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADT ADT Inc. | $9.90 | $12.37 | +24.9% | Undervalued |
| BCO The Brink's Company | $109.98 | $100.53 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| BRC Brady Corporation | $79.79 | $83.38 | +4.5% | Fairly valued |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | $25.17 | $28.33 | +12.6% | Fairly valued |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | $28.23 | $37.08 | +31.3% | Undervalued |
| ALLE Allegion plc | $187.14 | $170.85 | -8.7% | Low evidence grade |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $29.99 | $36.87 | +22.9% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MSA, the peer-implied price, is $249.59 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All security & protection services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
MSA Safety at a glance
MSA Safety Incorporated is a prominent global manufacturer and provider of safety equipment, specializing in the engineering, production, and distribution of solutions designed to safeguard both personnel and critical infrastructure.
- Market value
- $6.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.76
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MSA was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MSA Safety on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MSA was $194.09. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $190.93, a change of -1.6%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MSA Safety's valuation
Is MSA Safety stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MSA reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $190.93 a share against a last close of $169.99, a gap of +12.3%.
What is MSA's fair value?
$190.93 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $115.67 to $303.98.
What price range does the model give MSA?
$157.45 to $186.77 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does MSA Safety report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MSA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.2% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MSA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MSA
The model holds no idea open on MSA today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MSA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.