NYSE: BRC · Security & Protection Services
Brady (BRC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Brady (BRC) at $83.38 a share. The stock last closed at $79.79, which puts the model's fair value 4.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Brady Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $83.38, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $79.79 is 4.5% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 16 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 8% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BRC?
The calibrated range for BRC over 63 trading days is $72.95 to $89.08. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BRC's own options imply (30% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $66.77 to $103.30. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Brady Corporation, established in 1914 and based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, operates as a global supplier of specialised identification and workplace safety products.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Brady Corporation (BRC) at $83.38 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $82.75, so the fair value moved +0.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $72.95 to $89.08, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Calibrated weekly against realised prices, with 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade reflects input completeness, peer count and agreement, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Brady's overall quality score is 72 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality stands out at 88, with trailing revenue growth of 9.8% against a peer median of 2.4%. Profitability scores 79, with ROIC of 16.6% against a peer median of 11.6%. The model compares Brady with GEO, BCO, CXW, ADT and MSA, each with its own fair value on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BRC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Brady's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BRC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.7% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BRC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BRC
How does BRC score on business quality?
Brady's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 79 | 16.6%ROIC | 11.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 46 | 0.94xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 88 | 9.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 1.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 77 | -0.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.13x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 74 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does BRC compare with similar companies?
The companies in security & protection services closest to Brady in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | $25.17 | $28.33 | +12.6% | Fairly valued |
| BCO The Brink's Company | $109.98 | $100.53 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | $28.23 | $37.08 | +31.3% | Undervalued |
| ADT ADT Inc. | $9.90 | $12.37 | +24.9% | Undervalued |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $169.99 | $190.93 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $29.99 | $36.87 | +22.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ALLE Allegion plc | $187.14 | $170.85 | -8.7% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BRC, the peer-implied price, is $86.38 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All security & protection services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Brady at a glance
Brady Corporation, established in 1914 and based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, operates as a global supplier of specialized identification and workplace safety products.
- Market value
- $3.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +74.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.35
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BRC was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Brady on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BRC was $82.75. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $83.38, a change of +0.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Brady's valuation
Is Brady stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BRC reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $83.38 a share against a last close of $79.79, a gap of +4.5%.
What is BRC's fair value?
$83.38 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $66.77 to $103.30.
What price range does the model give BRC?
$72.95 to $89.08 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Brady report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BRC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.5% around the report of 18 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BRC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BRC
The model holds no idea open on BRC today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BRC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.