NYSE: CXW · Security & Protection Services
CoreCivic (CXW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values CoreCivic (CXW) at $40.36 a share. The stock last closed at $33.43, which puts the model's fair value 20.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. CoreCivic, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
CoreCivic, Inc. specialises in the ownership and management of correctional institutions, detention centres, and residential reentry facilities throughout the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $40.36 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +3.8% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $38.87. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.67 to $48.93, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 61 out of 100 against comparable companies, with Growth quality scoring 86 and Balance sheet 21. The model compares CoreCivic, Inc. with Brady Corporation (BRC), The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO), The Brink's Company (BCO), ADT Inc. (ADT), MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA), Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC), and Allegion plc (ALLE). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median of 5.7%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CXW?
The calibrated range for CXW over 63 trading days is $33.67 to $48.93. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $29.54 to $53.35. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CXW score on business quality?
CoreCivic's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 64 | 8.7%ROIC | 7.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 38 | 0.45xFCF / net income | 1.29x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 86 | 12.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 74 | 5.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 21 | 3.24xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does CXW compare with similar companies?
The companies in security & protection services closest to CoreCivic in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Brady Corporation | $84.78 | $84.81 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | $31.36 | $30.20 | -3.7% | Fairly valued |
| BCO The Brink's Company | $101.80 | $126.40 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| ADT ADT Inc. | $6.25 | $8.64 | +38.2% | Undervalued |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $181.23 | $176.73 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $36.17 | $34.57 | -4.4% | Fairly valued |
| ALLE Allegion plc | $154.21 | $162.12 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
All security & protection services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CXW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
CoreCivic's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CXW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +6.9% |
| 6 May 2026 | +12.4% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -4.4% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -8.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -0.5% |
| 7 May 2025 | +0.7% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | -2.1% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +62.0% |
CoreCivic at a glance
CoreCivic, Inc. specializes in the ownership and management of a diverse portfolio of correctional institutions, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +22.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices CoreCivic on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CXW was $38.87. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $40.36, a change of +3.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about CoreCivic's valuation
Is CoreCivic stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CXW reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $40.36 a share against a last close of $33.43, a gap of +20.7%.
What is CXW's fair value?
$40.36 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $29.54 to $53.35.
What price range does the model give CXW?
$33.67 to $48.93 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does CoreCivic report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CXW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +62.0% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CXW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.