NYSE: GEO · Security & Protection Services
GEO Group (GEO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values GEO Group (GEO) at $29.87 a share. The stock last closed at $31.36, which puts the model's fair value 4.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The GEO Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
The GEO Group, Inc. operates, leases, and owns secure correctional centres, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $29.87 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a -3.4% move from the $30.92 given by the previous run on 19 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $25.06 to $36.42. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 45 out of 100 against comparable companies. These companies were Brady Corporation (BRC), The Brink's Company (BCO), ADT Inc. (ADT), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW), MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA), Allegion plc (ALLE), and Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -17.8% to +18.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GEO?
The calibrated range for GEO over 63 trading days is $25.06 to $36.42. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $20.61 to $41.84. In 46% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GEO score on business quality?
GEO Group's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 24 | 7.5%ROIC | 12.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 44 | 0.55xFCF / net income | 0.98x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 8.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 60 | 5.5%Net buybacks / market value | 2.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 41 | 2.40xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.99x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does GEO compare with similar companies?
The companies in security & protection services closest to GEO Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Brady Corporation | $84.78 | $83.93 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| BCO The Brink's Company | $101.80 | $124.30 | +22.1% | Undervalued |
| ADT ADT Inc. | $6.25 | $8.57 | +37.1% | Undervalued |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | $33.43 | $38.87 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $181.23 | $176.03 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| ALLE Allegion plc | $154.21 | $161.93 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $36.17 | $34.17 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
All security & protection services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does GEO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
GEO Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How GEO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -2.3% |
| 6 May 2026 | +15.6% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -10.2% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -10.0% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -16.8% |
| 7 May 2025 | -17.8% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +6.1% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +18.0% |
GEO Group at a glance
The GEO Group, Inc. is dedicated to the operation, leasing, and ownership of secure correctional centers, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa.
- Market value
- $4.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices GEO Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GEO was $30.92. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $29.87, a change of -3.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about GEO Group's valuation
Is GEO Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GEO reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $29.87 a share against a last close of $31.36, a gap of -4.8%.
What is GEO's fair value?
$29.87 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $20.61 to $41.84.
What price range does the model give GEO?
$25.06 to $36.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does GEO Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GEO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.0% around the report of 7 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GEO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.