NYSE: ORI ยท Property & Casualty Insurance
Old Republic International (ORI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 7 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Old Republic International (ORI) at $44.62 a share. The stock last closed at $39.61, which puts the model's fair value 12.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the last session close. Old Republic International Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 7 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $46.27 to $44.62 (-3.6%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $39.61 is 12.6% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 28 Jan 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 14 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ORI?
The calibrated range for ORI over 63 trading days is $35.86 to $53.16. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 11,845 past valuations, refreshed 7 Nov 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $35.58 to $55.02. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does ORI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Old Republic International's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ORI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
How does ORI compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Old Republic International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $383.73 | $310.80 | -19.0% | Overvalued |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $242.90 | $278.24 | +14.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $273.07 | $189.00 | -30.8% | Low evidence grade |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $154.55 | $191.32 | +23.8% | Undervalued |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $68.35 | $47.17 | -31.0% | Overvalued |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $307.00 | $255.72 | -16.7% | Low evidence grade |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $99.44 | $102.97 | +3.5% | Fairly valued |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $82.61 | $137.29 | +66.2% | Gap wider than 60% |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Old Republic International at a glance
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI), through its various subsidiary entities, specializes in insurance underwriting and related services, primarily conducting business in the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $9.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- -0.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 6 Nov 2026, 53.0% of the 1,067 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ORI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Old Republic International on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 17 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ORI was $46.27. As of 7 Nov 2026 it is $44.62, a change of -3.6%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Old Republic International's valuation
Is Old Republic International stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ORI reads as Fairly valued as of 7 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $44.62 a share against a last close of $39.61, a gap of +12.6%.
What is ORI's fair value?
$44.62 a share as of 7 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $35.58 to $55.02.
What price range does the model give ORI?
$35.86 to $53.16 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 11,845 past valuations, refreshed 7 Nov 2026.
When does Old Republic International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ORI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.0% around the report of 22 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ORI is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ORI
The model holds no idea open on ORI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ORI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.