NYSE: ORI ยท Property & Casualty Insurance
Old Republic International (ORI) fair value and price range
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Old Republic International (ORI) at $44.41 a share. The stock last closed at $39.95, which puts the model's fair value 11.2% above the price. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Old Republic International Corporation.
What price range does the model give ORI?
The calibrated range for ORI over 63 trading days is $37.47 to $54.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $37.28 to $52.23. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ORI compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Old Republic International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $239.05 | $159.98 | -33.1% | Low model confidence |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $356.85 | $290.96 | -18.5% | Low model confidence |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $142.31 | $153.01 | +7.5% | Low model confidence |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $227.31 | $205.66 | -9.5% | Low model confidence |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $282.23 | $242.10 | -14.2% | Low model confidence |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $100.94 | $162.42 | +60.9% | Outside the model's reliable range |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $59.39 | $46.46 | -21.8% | Low model confidence |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $86.70 | $85.07 | -1.9% | Low model confidence |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ORI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Old Republic International's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ORI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +1.7% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -4.0% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | -12.0% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -3.5% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -2.1% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +3.2% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | +1.3% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -3.9% |
Old Republic International at a glance
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI), through its various subsidiary entities, specializes in insurance underwriting and related services, primarily conducting business in the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $9.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- -0.22
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Old Republic International on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ORI was $53.92. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $44.41, a change of -17.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Old Republic International's valuation
Is Old Republic International stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ORI's fair value at $44.41 a share against a last close of $39.95, as of 19 Sep 2026. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
What is ORI's fair value?
$44.41 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $37.28 to $52.23.
What price range does the model give ORI?
$37.47 to $54.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Old Republic International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ORI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.0% around the report of 22 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for ORI is low. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.