NYSE: AMCR · Packaging & Containers
Amcor (AMCR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Amcor (AMCR) at $48.32 a share. The stock last closed at $41.86, which puts the model's fair value 15.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Amcor plc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Amcor plc is a global provider of packaging solutions. The company creates, produces, and distributes its product portfolio across Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $48.32 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $49.00, so the fair value moved -1.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $40.31 to $58.58, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence as Medium.
The overall quality score for Amcor plc is 42 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares Amcor plc with Packaging Corporation of America, Ball Corporation, Greif, Inc., and Silgan Holdings Inc. The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 6.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AMCR?
The calibrated range for AMCR over 63 trading days is $40.31 to $58.58. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $28.80 to $73.51. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AMCR score on business quality?
Amcor's overall quality score is 42 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 17 | 6.3%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 53 | 1.58xFCF / net income | 1.05x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 60 | 56.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 4.14xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.82x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does AMCR compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Amcor in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $228.54 | $213.09 | -6.8% | Fairly valued |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | $42.54 | $50.09 | +17.7% | Low evidence grade |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $56.37 | $52.99 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $169.87 | $163.50 | -3.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $106.05 | $120.51 | +13.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.74 | $58.89 | +20.8% | Low evidence grade |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $82.18 | $73.59 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $34.87 | $37.91 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AMCR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Amcor's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AMCR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | -2.2% |
| 6 May 2026 | +6.1% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +11.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +4.4% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -12.2% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -2.7% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +6.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -7.2% |
Amcor at a glance
Amcor plc stands as a prominent global provider of packaging solutions, focusing on the creation, production, and distribution of its diverse product portfolio across Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions.
- Market value
- $19.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $24.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.55
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Amcor on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AMCR was $49.00. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $48.32, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Amcor's valuation
Is Amcor stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AMCR reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $48.32 a share against a last close of $41.86, a gap of +15.4%.
What is AMCR's fair value?
$48.32 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $28.80 to $73.51.
What price range does the model give AMCR?
$40.31 to $58.58 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Amcor report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMCR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.2% around the report of 14 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMCR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.