NYSE: AVY · Packaging & Containers
Avery Dennison (AVY) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Avery Dennison (AVY) at $164.58 a share. The stock last closed at $169.87, which puts the model's fair value 3.1% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Avery Dennison Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $164.58 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $162.19, a move of +1.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $138.08 to $200.68, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score is 78 out of 100, against comparable companies including Ball Corporation, Amcor plc, and Packaging Corporation of America. The model records moves around the last 8 earnings reports, with the median size, ignoring direction, at 2.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AVY?
The calibrated range for AVY over 63 trading days is $138.08 to $200.68. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $116.00 to $224.41. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AVY score on business quality?
Avery Dennison's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 84 | 14.5%ROIC | 7.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 97 | 1.51xFCF / net income | 0.87x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 46 | 1.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 90 | 3.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 47 | 2.53xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does AVY compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Avery Dennison in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $106.05 | $121.83 | +14.9% | Low evidence grade |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $56.37 | $53.32 | -5.4% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $41.86 | $49.13 | +17.4% | Undervalued |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $228.54 | $221.23 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | $42.54 | $51.25 | +20.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.74 | $57.78 | +18.5% | Low evidence grade |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $82.18 | $73.64 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $34.87 | $38.40 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AVY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Avery Dennison's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AVY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +1.5% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -1.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +3.2% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +13.9% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +0.4% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | -0.7% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -3.7% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -3.5% |
Avery Dennison at a glance
Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
- Market value
- $13.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Avery Dennison on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AVY was $162.19. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $164.58, a change of +1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Avery Dennison's valuation
Is Avery Dennison stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AVY's fair value at $164.58 a share against a last close of $169.87, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AVY's fair value?
$164.58 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $116.00 to $224.41.
What price range does the model give AVY?
$138.08 to $200.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Avery Dennison report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AVY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.9% around the report of 22 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AVY is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.