NYSE: CCK · Packaging & Containers
Crown Holdings (CCK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Crown Holdings (CCK) at $141.33 a share. The stock last closed at $120.73, which puts the model's fair value 17.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Crown Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $141.33, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $120.73 is 17.1% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 3 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 7% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 4 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CCK?
The calibrated range for CCK over 63 trading days is $112.34 to $131.91. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CCK's own options imply (24% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $83.12 to $223.02. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Crown Holdings, Inc. is a global enterprise dedicated to the design, production, and sale of a diverse range of packaging solutions and related machinery. It is classed as Consumer Cyclical, within Packaging & Containers.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $141.33 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is a move of -1.0% from the previous run, which gave $142.70. The calibrated range runs from $112.34 to $131.91 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Crown Holdings scores 73 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, a composite of six factors. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 15.2% against a peer median of 7.8%. Stability scores 10, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 4.5 pts against a peer median of 1.2 pts. The model compares the company with Avery Dennison Corporation, Ball Corporation, Amcor plc, Packaging Corporation of America, Silgan Holdings Inc. and Greif, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CCK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Crown Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 4 Nov 2026, CCK's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 7.0% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
On 4 Nov 2026 CCK moved 3.4% in one session, against the 1.5% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CCK's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CCK
How does CCK score on business quality?
Crown Holdings's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 15.2%ROIC | 7.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.23xFCF / net income | 0.95x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 69 | 4.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 60 | 6.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 76 | 2.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 10 | 4.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does CCK compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Crown Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $185.38 | $183.97 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $63.21 | $62.92 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $46.96 | $43.40 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | $43.42 | $53.89 | +24.1% | Data under review |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $254.95 | $240.24 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.83 | $59.09 | +21.0% | Low evidence grade |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $41.51 | $40.64 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $81.25 | $76.59 | -5.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CCK, the peer-implied price, is $176.63 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Crown Holdings at a glance
Crown Holdings, Inc. is a global enterprise dedicated to the design, production, and sale of a diverse range of packaging solutions and related machinery.
- Market value
- $12.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CCK was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Crown Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CCK was $142.70. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $141.33, a change of -1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Crown Holdings's valuation
Is Crown Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CCK reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $141.33 a share against a last close of $120.73, a gap of +17.1%.
What is CCK's fair value?
$141.33 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $83.12 to $223.02.
What price range does the model give CCK?
$112.34 to $131.91 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Crown Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CCK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.1% around the report of 20 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CCK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CCK
The model has an idea open on CCK under Scorecard Leaders since 4 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CCK with their outcomes. A free account is enough.