NYSE: SON ยท Packaging & Containers
Sonoco Products (SON) fair value and price range
As of 22 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Sonoco Products (SON) at $59.66 a share. The stock last closed at $49.25, which puts the model's fair value 21.1% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Sonoco Products Company.
What price range does the model give SON?
The calibrated range for SON over 63 trading days is $50.34 to $73.12. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 51% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.9%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.91 to $107.31. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SON score on business quality?
Sonoco Products's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 22 | 6.5%ROIC | 11.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 31 | 0.62xFCF / net income | 0.99x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | 41.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 47 | 2.94xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.88x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 4.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does SON compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Sonoco Products in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $37.09 | $39.46 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $83.32 | $73.57 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $9.25 | $11.83 | +27.9% | Low model confidence |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $108.73 | $122.19 | +12.4% | Low model confidence |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $169.33 | $162.19 | -4.2% | Low model confidence |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $59.71 | $56.09 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $42.15 | $47.96 | +13.8% | Fairly valued |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $238.31 | $218.17 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SON report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sonoco Products's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SON moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | +2.9% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -16.2% |
| 16 Feb 2026 | +9.8% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +0.6% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +2.0% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +0.4% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | -2.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -2.5% |
Sonoco Products at a glance
Sonoco Products Company (SON), through its numerous subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide producer and vendor of both industrial and consumer packaging solutions. Its extensive reach covers markets across North and South America, Europe, Australia, and Asia.
- Market value
- $4.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sonoco Products on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SON was $59.65. It is unchanged at $59.66 as of 22 Sep 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sonoco Products's valuation
Is Sonoco Products stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SON's fair value at $59.66 a share against a last close of $49.25, as of 22 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SON's fair value?
$59.66 a share as of 22 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.91 to $107.31.
What price range does the model give SON?
$50.34 to $73.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Sonoco Products report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SON moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.2% around the report of 21 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for SON is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.