NYSE: SON · Packaging & Containers
Sonoco Products (SON) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Sonoco Products (SON) at $59.09 a share. The stock last closed at $51.37, which puts the model's fair value 15.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Sonoco Products Company.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $59.09, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $51.37 is 15.0% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 15 Feb 2027. On the model's Peer Discount list since 22 Oct 2026 (a strategy with an early record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SON?
The calibrated range for SON over 63 trading days is $47.87 to $70.58. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $26.08 to $105.71. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Sonoco Products Company (SON) operates as a worldwide producer and vendor of industrial and consumer packaging solutions. Its reach covers North and South America, Europe, Australia and Asia.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $59.09 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $59.35, so the fair value moved -0.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $47.87 to $70.58. It is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 10,454 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
On quality, the model scores Sonoco 32 out of 100 against comparable companies. Profitability scores 0, with ROIC at -2.3% against a peer median of 12.0%. Balance sheet scores 10, with Net debt / EBITDA at 6.03x against a peer median of 2.71x. The comparable companies are Silgan Holdings Inc. (SLGN), Greif, Inc. (GEF), Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK), Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) and Ball Corporation (BALL).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does SON report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sonoco Products's next earnings report is scheduled for 15 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SON's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
How does SON score on business quality?
Sonoco Products's overall quality score is 32 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -2.3%ROIC | 12.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 58 | 41.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 35 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 10 | 6.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.71x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 4.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does SON compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Sonoco Products in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $41.64 | $39.41 | -5.4% | Fairly valued |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $73.38 | $76.59 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $11.54 | $11.08 | -4.0% | Low evidence grade |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $121.86 | $141.33 | +16.0% | Undervalued |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $189.70 | $183.97 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $66.91 | $62.92 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $45.84 | $56.24 | +22.7% | Data under review |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | $44.51 | $53.89 | +21.1% | Data under review |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SON, the peer-implied price, is $72.31 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Sonoco Products at a glance
Sonoco Products Company (SON), through its numerous subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide producer and vendor of both industrial and consumer packaging solutions. Its extensive reach covers markets across North and South America, Europe, Australia, and Asia.
- Market value
- $4.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -2.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sonoco Products on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SON was $59.35. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $59.09, a change of -0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sonoco Products's valuation
Is Sonoco Products stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SON's fair value at $59.09 a share against a last close of $51.37, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SON's fair value?
$59.09 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $26.08 to $105.71.
What price range does the model give SON?
$47.87 to $70.58 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Sonoco Products report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 15 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SON moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.2% around the report of 21 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SON is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SON
The model has an idea open on SON under Peer Discount since 22 Oct 2026, a strategy with an early record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SON with their outcomes. A free account is enough.