NASDAQ: AMSF ยท Specialty Insurance
AMERISAFE (AMSF) fair value and price range
As of 7 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values AMERISAFE (AMSF) at $24.51 a share. No recent price is on file for AMSF; the valuation is shown at its last recorded close of 30 Oct 2026. That close was $20.91; no gap to it and no verdict are shown until a new price is on file.
Revalued . Price is the close of 30 Oct 2026. AMERISAFE, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 7 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $26.15 to $24.51 (-6.3%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itNo recent price is on file for AMSF; the valuation is shown at its last recorded close of 30 Oct 2026. The fair value of $24.51 a share, on a low evidence grade, stands; no verdict is shown without a current price.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 14 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AMSF?
The calibrated range for AMSF over 63 trading days is $19.70 to $29.20. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 11,845 past valuations, refreshed 7 Nov 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $19.03 to $31.00. In 77% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does AMSF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
AMERISAFE's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AMSF's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.7%.
How does AMSF compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty insurance closest to AMERISAFE in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $47.30 | $20.55 | -56.6% | Overvalued |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | $39.03 | $54.63 | +40.0% | Low evidence grade |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | $73.45 | $68.97 | -6.1% | Low evidence grade |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | $35.97 | $48.22 | +34.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | $63.41 | $83.34 | +31.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | $28.60 | $34.88 | +22.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | $46.43 | $49.49 | +6.6% | Low evidence grade |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | $67.01 | $67.69 | +1.0% | Low evidence grade |
AMERISAFE at a glance
Operating as an insurance holding company, AMERISAFE, Inc. specializes in providing workers' compensation coverage across the United States.
- Market value
- $363M
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Specialty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- -0.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices AMERISAFE on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AMSF was $26.15. As of 7 Nov 2026 it is $24.51, a change of -6.3%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about AMERISAFE's valuation
Is AMERISAFE stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AMSF's fair value at $24.51 a share as of 7 Nov 2026. No recent price is on file for AMSF; the valuation is shown at its last recorded close of 30 Oct 2026. No verdict is shown without a current price.
What is AMSF's fair value?
$24.51 a share as of 7 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $19.03 to $31.00.
What price range does the model give AMSF?
$19.70 to $29.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 11,845 past valuations, refreshed 7 Nov 2026.
When does AMERISAFE report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMSF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.6% around the report of 23 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMSF is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.