NYSE: MTDR ยท Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Matador Resources (MTDR) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Matador Resources (MTDR) at $85.78 a share. The stock last closed at $49.87, which puts the model's fair value 72.0% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Matador Resources Company.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $85.78, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $49.87 is 72.0% below it. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 3 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MTDR?
The calibrated range for MTDR over 63 trading days is $43.42 to $59.12. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MTDR's own options imply (47% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $62.38 to $114.69. In 82% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does MTDR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Matador Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MTDR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.5% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 MTDR moved 7.3% in one session, against the 2.9% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MTDR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MTDR
How does MTDR score on business quality?
Matador Resources's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 77 | 12.3%ROIC | 8.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 54 | 0.86xFCF / net income | 1.05x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 60 | 5.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 15 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 51 | 1.37xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.12x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.3 pts |
How does MTDR compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Matador Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $23.52 | $28.04 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | $132.45 | $200.83 | +51.6% | Undervalued |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $36.31 | $43.60 | +20.1% | Undervalued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $29.63 | $36.29 | +22.5% | Undervalued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $35.30 | $42.14 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $45.60 | $53.24 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $11.14 | $16.06 | +44.2% | Undervalued |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $50.19 | $49.37 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MTDR, the peer-implied price, is $121.17 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Matador Resources at a glance
Matador Resources Company operates as an independent energy firm, primarily engaged in the identification, development, extraction, and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas reserves throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $7.5B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Matador Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MTDR was $86.07. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $85.78, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Matador Resources's valuation
Is Matador Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MTDR's fair value at $85.78 a share against a last close of $49.87, as of 31 Oct 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is MTDR's fair value?
$85.78 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $62.38 to $114.69.
What price range does the model give MTDR?
$43.42 to $59.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Matador Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MTDR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.7% around the report of 6 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MTDR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MTDR
The model has an idea open on MTDR under Scorecard Leaders since 3 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MTDR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.