NASDAQ: CHRD · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Chord Energy (CHRD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Chord Energy (CHRD) at $200.83 a share. The stock last closed at $132.45, which puts the model's fair value 51.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Chord Energy Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $200.83, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $132.45 is 51.6% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CHRD?
The calibrated range for CHRD over 63 trading days is $116.70 to $154.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CHRD's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $139.85 to $282.30. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Chord Energy Corporation, listed as CHRD, is an independent enterprise that specialises in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon resources.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $200.83 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is unchanged from the previous run on 24 Oct 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $116.86 to $154.17. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium, covering input completeness, comparable count and agreement, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 69 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. The two standout factors are Balance sheet at 93, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.36x against a peer median of 1.27x, and Capital discipline at 80, with net buybacks to market value of 3.6% against a peer median of 1.5%. The model compares the company with SM Energy, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Murphy Oil, Range Resources, CNX Resources and California Resources.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CHRD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Chord Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CHRD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 CHRD moved 8.0% in one session, against the 2.7% a day that options had priced: 3.0 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CHRD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CHRD
How does CHRD score on business quality?
Chord Energy's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 10.3%ROIC | 7.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 74 | 1.40xFCF / net income | 0.89x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 58 | -7.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 80 | 3.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 93 | 0.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.27x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 53 | 7.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.4 pts |
How does CHRD compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Chord Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM SM Energy Company | $29.63 | $36.29 | +22.5% | Undervalued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $49.87 | $85.78 | +72.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $23.52 | $28.04 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $36.31 | $43.60 | +20.1% | Undervalued |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | $50.19 | $49.37 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | $36.38 | $36.31 | -0.2% | Low evidence grade |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $35.30 | $42.14 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $45.60 | $53.24 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CHRD, the peer-implied price, is $265.52 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Chord Energy at a glance
As an independent enterprise, Chord Energy Corporation specializes in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon resources.
- Market value
- $8.6B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +51.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- -0.45
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CHRD was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Chord Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CHRD was $200.88. It is unchanged at $200.83 as of 31 Oct 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Chord Energy's valuation
Is Chord Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CHRD reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $200.83 a share against a last close of $132.45, a gap of +51.6%.
What is CHRD's fair value?
$200.83 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $139.85 to $282.30.
What price range does the model give CHRD?
$116.70 to $154.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Chord Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHRD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.2% around the report of 3 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHRD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CHRD
The model holds no idea open on CHRD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CHRD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.