NYSE: BF-B · Wineries & Distilleries
Brown-Forman (BF-B) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Brown-Forman (BF-B) at $27.79 a share. The stock last closed at $28.95, which puts the model's fair value 4.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Brown-Forman Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $28.45 to $27.79 (-2.3%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $28.95 is 4.0% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 3 Dec 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BF-B?
The calibrated range for BF-B over 63 trading days is $22.51 to $33.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.63 to $35.24. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Brown-Forman Corporation, along with its subsidiaries, operates globally within the alcoholic beverage industry. It is classed under Consumer Defensive, Wineries & Distilleries.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $27.79 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $28.45, so the fair value moved -2.3%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $22.51 to $33.19. It is built from the fair value, as there is no live options data for the stock, and is calibrated weekly against 10,454 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of the range of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Brown-Forman scores 64 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six factors measured against comparable companies. Capital discipline is the highest factor at 77, with net buybacks at 3.0% of market value against a peer median of 6.3%. Growth quality is the lowest at 39, with trailing revenue growth of -1.2% against a peer median of -3.7%. The model compares the company with BJ, SJM, MKC, HRL, PFGC, CLX and GIS, each with a fair value of its own on the site. COKE is also a comparable, but the model has no result for it on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BF-B report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Brown-Forman's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BF-B's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
How does BF-B score on business quality?
Brown-Forman's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 74 | 14.8%ROIC | 11.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 69 | 1.28xFCF / net income | 1.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 39 | -1.2%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 6.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 53 | 1.97xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.28x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.5 pts |
How does BF-B compare with similar companies?
The companies in wineries & distilleries closest to Brown-Forman in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $109.46 | $110.45 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $127.98 | $132.86 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $47.88 | $44.95 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $206.26 | $227.19 | +10.1% | Low evidence grade |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $21.26 | $22.05 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
| PFGC Performance Food Group Co | $96.51 | $103.44 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| CLX The Clorox Company | $93.80 | $94.91 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | $34.08 | $34.93 | +2.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BF-B, the peer-implied price, is $22.24 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Brown-Forman at a glance
Brown-Forman Corporation, along with its subsidiaries, operates globally within the alcoholic beverage industry.
- Market value
- $13.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Wineries & Distilleries
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- -0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BF-B was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Brown-Forman on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BF-B was $28.45. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $27.79, a change of -2.3%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Brown-Forman's valuation
Is Brown-Forman stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BF-B reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $27.79 a share against a last close of $28.95, a gap of -4.0%.
What is BF-B's fair value?
$27.79 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.63 to $35.24.
What price range does the model give BF-B?
$22.51 to $33.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Brown-Forman report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BF-B moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.9% around the report of 4 Mar 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BF-B is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BF-B
The model holds no idea open on BF-B today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BF-B with their outcomes. A free account is enough.