NYSE: SJM · Packaged Foods
J. M. Smucker (SJM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values J. M. Smucker (SJM) at $126.02 a share. The stock last closed at $117.19, which puts the model's fair value 7.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The J. M. Smucker Company.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S.
Faircurve's model on 28 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $126.02 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $124.59, and the fair value moved +1.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $105.73 to $153.66, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 63 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 78, Earnings quality 82, Growth quality 67, Capital discipline 39, Balance sheet 21, and Stability 33. The model compares it with McCormick & Company, Incorporated, Hormel Foods Corporation, Darling Ingredients Inc., General Mills, Inc., Pilgrim's Pride Corporation, and Ingredion Incorporated. The moves around the last 8 earnings reports include +5.1% on 26 Aug 2026 and +15.0% on 9 Jun 2026, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 4.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SJM?
The calibrated range for SJM over 63 trading days is $105.73 to $153.66. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $74.74 to $193.09. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SJM score on business quality?
J. M. Smucker's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 78 | 9.3%ROIC | 6.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 82 | 6.92xFCF / net income | 1.12x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 67 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 21 | 5.14xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 5.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does SJM compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to J. M. Smucker in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $44.67 | $41.90 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $20.25 | $19.82 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | $62.94 | $65.99 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | $32.01 | $36.80 | +15.0% | Fairly valued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $13.36 | $17.18 | +28.6% | Data under review |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.50 | $32.30 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $95.33 | $105.71 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $43.60 | $46.03 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does SJM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
J. M. Smucker's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SJM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | +5.1% |
| 9 Jun 2026 | +15.0% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +8.8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | -1.0% |
| 27 Aug 2025 | -3.5% |
| 10 Jun 2025 | -14.3% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +1.3% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | +3.9% |
J. M. Smucker at a glance
The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S.
- Market value
- $12.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.35
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices J. M. Smucker on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SJM was $124.59. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $126.02, a change of +1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about J. M. Smucker's valuation
Is J. M. Smucker stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SJM reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $126.02 a share against a last close of $117.19, a gap of +7.5%.
What is SJM's fair value?
$126.02 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $74.74 to $193.09.
What price range does the model give SJM?
$105.73 to $153.66 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does J. M. Smucker report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SJM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.0% around the report of 9 Jun 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SJM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.