NYSE: HRL · Packaged Foods
Hormel Foods (HRL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Hormel Foods (HRL) at $19.82 a share. The stock last closed at $20.25, which puts the model's fair value 2.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Hormel Foods Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Hormel Foods Corporation is a prominent global food company that specializes in the creation, preparation, and supply of a diverse array of meat, nut, and other culinary items.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $19.82 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $19.63, so the fair value moved +1.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $18.69 to $23.29, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The business scored 52 out of 100 for overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score was 25, with ROIC at 3.8% against a peer median of 8.9%. Earnings quality was 80, with FCF / net income at 2.28x against a peer median of 0.83x. The model compares Hormel Foods Corporation with Darling Ingredients Inc., McCormick & Company, Incorporated, The J. M. Smucker Company, Pilgrim's Pride Corporation, General Mills, Inc., and Ingredion Incorporated. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -12.3% to +10.8%, with a median size of 3.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HRL?
The calibrated range for HRL over 63 trading days is $18.69 to $23.29. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HRL's own options imply (31% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.20 to $23.78. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HRL score on business quality?
Hormel Foods's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 3.8%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 2.28xFCF / net income | 0.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 48 | 1.6%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 66 | 2.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does HRL compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Hormel Foods in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | $62.94 | $65.99 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $44.67 | $41.90 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $117.19 | $126.02 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $13.36 | $17.18 | +28.6% | Data under review |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.50 | $32.30 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | $32.01 | $36.80 | +15.0% | Fairly valued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $95.33 | $105.71 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $43.60 | $46.03 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does HRL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hormel Foods's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HRL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.9% over one month.
How HRL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | -9.0% |
| 28 May 2026 | +10.8% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +1.1% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | +4.6% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | -12.3% |
| 29 May 2025 | +2.1% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -0.3% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | +3.3% |
Hormel Foods at a glance
Hormel Foods Corporation is a prominent global food company that specializes in the creation, preparation, and supply of a diverse array of meat, nut, and other culinary items.
- Market value
- $10.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $12.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hormel Foods on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HRL was $19.63. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $19.82, a change of +1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hormel Foods's valuation
Is Hormel Foods stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HRL reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $19.82 a share against a last close of $20.25, a gap of -2.1%.
What is HRL's fair value?
$19.82 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.20 to $23.78.
What price range does the model give HRL?
$18.69 to $23.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Hormel Foods report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HRL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.3% around the report of 28 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HRL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.