NYSE: BRBR · Packaged Foods
BellRing Brands (BRBR) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values BellRing Brands (BRBR) at $10.33 a share. The stock last closed at $9.42, which puts the model's fair value 9.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. BellRing Brands, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $10.54 to $10.33 (-2.0%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $9.42 is 9.7% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 17 Nov 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BRBR?
The calibrated range for BRBR over 63 trading days is $8.37 to $12.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.93 to $17.45. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
BellRing Brands, Inc. provides diverse nutritional products in the United States and international markets.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of BellRing Brands at $10.33 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $10.54, so the fair value moved -2.0%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $8.37 to $12.34, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
BellRing Brands scores 84 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, the model's composite of six quality factors. Profitability shows ROIC of 37.2% against a peer median of 0.4%, and capital discipline shows net buybacks at 32.3% of market value against a peer median of 10.1%. Stability scores 94, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.3 pts against a peer median of 6.5 pts. The model compares the company with The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL), J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA), Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) and Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BRBR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
BellRing Brands's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BRBR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BRBR
How does BRBR score on business quality?
BellRing Brands's overall quality score is 84 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 37.2%ROIC | 0.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 1.31xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 69 | 16.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 32.3%Net buybacks / market value | 10.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 26 | 3.27xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 94 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.5 pts |
How does BRBR compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to BellRing Brands in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | $12.47 | $11.29 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| FLO Flowers Foods, Inc. | $6.72 | $6.36 | -5.4% | Low evidence grade |
| JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | $87.01 | $85.42 | -1.8% | Fairly valued |
| JBSS John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | $52.59 | $60.41 | +14.9% | Data under review |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $39.87 | $42.57 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $46.35 | $53.45 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $69.60 | $67.18 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $83.12 | $90.07 | +8.4% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BRBR, the peer-implied price, is $15.35 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
BellRing Brands at a glance
BellRing Brands Inc., along with its various subsidiaries, is a provider of diverse nutritional products, serving both the United States and international markets.
- Market value
- $1.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- -0.12
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices BellRing Brands on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BRBR was $10.54. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $10.33, a change of -2.0%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about BellRing Brands's valuation
Is BellRing Brands stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BRBR's fair value at $10.33 a share against a last close of $9.42, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is BRBR's fair value?
$10.33 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.93 to $17.45.
What price range does the model give BRBR?
$8.37 to $12.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does BellRing Brands report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BRBR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -36.1% around the report of 5 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BRBR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BRBR
The model holds no idea open on BRBR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BRBR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.