NYSE: FLO · Packaged Foods
Flowers Foods (FLO) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Flowers Foods (FLO) at $6.36 a share. The stock last closed at $6.72, which puts the model's fair value 5.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Flowers Foods, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $6.36, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $6.72 is 5.4% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FLO?
The calibrated range for FLO over 63 trading days is $5.15 to $7.60. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $3.31 to $10.09. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) focuses on the manufacture and sale of pre-packaged bakery items across the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Flowers Foods at $6.36 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $6.32, so the fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $5.15 to $7.60, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 10,454 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Flowers Foods scores 48 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the highest factor at 95, with FCF / net income at 5.73x. Stability scores 69, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 1.2 pts against a peer median of 1.3 pts. The lowest factors are the balance sheet at 16, with net debt / EBITDA at 5.94x against a peer median of 1.55x, and profitability at 20, with ROIC at 3.0% against a peer median of 5.2%. The model compares the company with J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL), Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA), Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) and Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does FLO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Flowers Foods's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FLO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
How does FLO score on business quality?
Flowers Foods's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 20 | 3.0%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 5.73xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 42 | 3.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 3.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 16 | 5.94xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.55x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 69 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does FLO compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Flowers Foods in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | $87.01 | $85.42 | -1.8% | Fairly valued |
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | $9.42 | $10.33 | +9.7% | Low evidence grade |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | $12.47 | $11.29 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $39.87 | $42.57 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $46.35 | $53.45 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| JBSS John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | $52.59 | $60.41 | +14.9% | Data under review |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $69.60 | $67.18 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $83.12 | $90.07 | +8.4% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for FLO, the peer-implied price, is $6.67 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Flowers Foods at a glance
Flowers Foods, Inc. focuses on the manufacturing and sale of pre-packaged bakery items across the United States.
- Market value
- $1.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.24
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Flowers Foods on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FLO was $6.32. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $6.36, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Flowers Foods's valuation
Is Flowers Foods stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts FLO's fair value at $6.36 a share against a last close of $6.72, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is FLO's fair value?
$6.36 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $3.31 to $10.09.
What price range does the model give FLO?
$5.15 to $7.60 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Flowers Foods report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FLO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.4% around the report of 12 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FLO is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FLO
The model holds no idea open on FLO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FLO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.