NASDAQ: CCEP · Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) at $100.85 a share. The stock last closed at $105.38, which puts the model's fair value 4.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $88.92 to $100.85 (+13.4%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $105.38 is 4.3% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 18 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give CCEP?
The calibrated range for CCEP over 63 trading days is $95.39 to $121.54. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CCEP's own options imply (35% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $81.26 to $122.33. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP), along with its affiliated entities, focuses on the creation, distribution, and sale of a wide array of non-alcoholic, ready-to-consume beverages.
Faircurve's model on 10 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $100.85 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 3 Oct 2026 gave $88.92, so the fair value moved +13.4% because the peer group changed, which was most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $95.39 to $121.54, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model gives the evidence a High grade.
The model's overall quality score for Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC is 49 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. Notable factors include Stability, which scored 100 with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y of 0.2 pts against a peer median of 1.8 pts, and Capital discipline at 75 with Net buybacks / market value of 3.9% against a peer median of 0.2%. Profitability scored 22 with ROIC of 12.0% against a peer median of 16.8%, and Growth quality was 25 with Revenue growth, trailing 2.3% against a peer median of 4.5%. The model compares Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC with Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., Monster Beverage Corporation, PepsiCo, Inc., The Coca-Cola Company, The Vita Coco Company, Inc., and National Beverage Corp.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CCEP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 37 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CCEP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.0% over one month.
Around its last 6 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CCEP's last 6 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
How does CCEP score on business quality?
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 22 | 12.0%ROIC | 16.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 77 | 1.06xFCF / net income | 0.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 25 | 2.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 3.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 2.63xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does CCEP compare with similar companies?
The companies in non-alcoholic beverages closest to Coca-Cola Europacific Partners in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $32.66 | $32.82 | +0.5% | Fairly valued |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $43.31 | $41.50 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $194.16 | $205.01 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $127.30 | $158.55 | +24.5% | Undervalued |
| CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $27.93 | $28.98 | +3.8% | Data under review |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $90.11 | $71.80 | -20.3% | Overvalued |
| COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. | $57.61 | $57.80 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
| FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $32.99 | $33.74 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CCEP, the peer-implied price, is $90.41 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All non-alcoholic beverage stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners at a glance
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP), along with its affiliated entities, focuses on the creation, distribution, and sale of a wide array of non-alcoholic, ready-to-consume beverages.
- Market value
- $46.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Non-Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $25.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- -0.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CCEP was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Coca-Cola Europacific Partners on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CCEP was $88.92. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $100.85, a change of +13.4%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's valuation
Is Coca-Cola Europacific Partners stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CCEP reads as Fairly valued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $100.85 a share against a last close of $105.38, a gap of -4.3%.
What is CCEP's fair value?
$100.85 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $81.26 to $122.33.
What price range does the model give CCEP?
$95.39 to $121.54 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Coca-Cola Europacific Partners report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CCEP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 6 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.2% around the report of 6 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CCEP is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CCEP
The model holds no idea open on CCEP today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CCEP with their outcomes. A free account is enough.