NASDAQ: CELH ยท Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Celsius Holdings (CELH) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Celsius Holdings (CELH) at $27.02 a share. The stock last closed at $26.75, which puts the model's fair value 1.0% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Celsius Holdings, Inc.
What price range does the model give CELH?
The calibrated range for CELH over 63 trading days is $23.17 to $33.94. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CELH's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.12 to $34.39. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CELH score on business quality?
Celsius Holdings's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 43 | 7.3%ROIC | 14.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 4.20xFCF / net income | 0.79x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 86 | 85.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 82 | 2.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 0.16xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.27x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 4 | 12.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does CELH compare with similar companies?
The companies in non-alcoholic beverages closest to Celsius Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. | $55.97 | $56.01 | +0.1% | Fairly valued |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $192.04 | $224.38 | +16.8% | Low evidence grade |
| FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $30.32 | $31.08 | +2.5% | Fairly valued |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $30.37 | $31.50 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | $101.06 | $88.92 | -12.0% | Fairly valued |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $42.94 | $40.81 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $125.89 | $152.82 | +21.4% | Undervalued |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $85.65 | $69.63 | -18.7% | Overvalued |
All non-alcoholic beverage stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CELH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Celsius Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CELH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.6% over one month.
How CELH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -4.7% |
| 7 May 2026 | -1.6% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +5.9% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -30.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +21.5% |
| 6 May 2025 | +18.3% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | +25.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -5.4% |
Celsius Holdings at a glance
Celsius Holdings, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the development, production, promotion, and distribution of functional beverages and liquid nutritional supplements.
- Market value
- $6.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Non-Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 1.00
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Celsius Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CELH was $28.11. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $27.02, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Celsius Holdings's valuation
Is Celsius Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CELH's fair value at $27.02 a share against a last close of $26.75, as of 3 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is CELH's fair value?
$27.02 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.12 to $34.39.
What price range does the model give CELH?
$23.17 to $33.94 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Celsius Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CELH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -30.7% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CELH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.