NASDAQ: FIZZ · Non-Alcoholic Beverages
National Beverage (FIZZ) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values National Beverage (FIZZ) at $30.68 a share. The stock last closed at $30.32, which puts the model's fair value 1.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. National Beverage Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, creates, produces, promotes, and distributes a diverse portfolio of beverages.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $30.68 a share on 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -4.8% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $32.21. The model's calibrated range is $25.74 to $37.41, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, holding the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 64 out of 100. This is a score against comparable companies, which include The Vita Coco Company, Inc., Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, Monster Beverage Corporation, PepsiCo, Inc., and The Coca-Cola Company. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 3.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FIZZ?
The calibrated range for FIZZ over 63 trading days is $25.74 to $37.41. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.95 to $37.62. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FIZZ score on business quality?
National Beverage's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 52.0%ROIC | 16.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 38 | 0.93xFCF / net income | 1.56x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 26 | -1.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 6.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 78 | -0.20xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does FIZZ compare with similar companies?
The companies in non-alcoholic beverages closest to National Beverage in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. | $55.97 | $59.61 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $26.75 | $28.11 | +5.1% | Data under review |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $192.04 | $222.46 | +15.8% | Low evidence grade |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $30.37 | $33.06 | +8.9% | Fairly valued |
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | $101.06 | $90.19 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $42.94 | $40.99 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $125.89 | $157.62 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $85.65 | $71.63 | -16.4% | Overvalued |
All non-alcoholic beverage stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does FIZZ report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
National Beverage's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How FIZZ moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | +2.7% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | -0.6% |
| 8 Sep 2026 | -5.3% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | -3.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | +6.8% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | +3.7% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | -4.7% |
| 11 Sep 2025 | -0.3% |
National Beverage at a glance
National Beverage Corp., operating through its various subsidiaries, specializes in the creation, production, promotion, and distribution of a diverse portfolio of beverages.
- Market value
- $2.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Non-Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- -0.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices National Beverage on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FIZZ was $32.21. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $30.68, a change of -4.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about National Beverage's valuation
Is National Beverage stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FIZZ reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $30.68 a share against a last close of $30.32, a gap of +1.2%.
What is FIZZ's fair value?
$30.68 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.95 to $37.62.
What price range does the model give FIZZ?
$25.74 to $37.41 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does National Beverage report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FIZZ moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.8% around the report of 1 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FIZZ is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.