NYSE: COTY · Household & Personal Products
Coty (COTY) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Coty (COTY) at $4.34 a share. The stock last closed at $3.29, which puts the model's fair value 31.9% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Coty Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $4.34, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $3.29 is 31.9% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give COTY?
The calibrated range for COTY over 63 trading days is $3.52 to $5.18. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 23% of the time over 63 trading days, and 76% ended below it; the typical move was +0.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1.33 to $8.87. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded beauty products worldwide. It operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Coty Inc. at $4.34 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $4.30, so the fair value moved +0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $3.52 to $5.18, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for Coty Inc. is 39 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Balance sheet scores 0, with net debt to EBITDA at 39.63x against a peer median of 3.91x. Growth quality scores 22, with trailing revenue growth at -1.5% against a peer median of 0.6%. Earnings quality scores 88. The model compares Coty with Inter Parfums, Reynolds Consumer Products, e.l.f. Beauty, Edgewell Personal Care, The Clorox Company, Church & Dwight and Kimberly-Clark.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does COTY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across COTY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.6%.
How does COTY score on business quality?
Coty's overall quality score is 39 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 36 | 4.3%ROIC | 4.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 88 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 22 | -1.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 39.63xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.91x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 5.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does COTY compare with similar companies?
The companies in household & personal products closest to Coty in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPAR Inter Parfums, Inc. | $117.09 | $123.13 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| NWL Newell Brands Inc. | $5.63 | $5.59 | -0.7% | Low evidence grade |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | $24.09 | $23.98 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $111.50 | $106.27 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| EPC Edgewell Personal Care Company | $27.93 | $25.82 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
| CLX The Clorox Company | $93.80 | $94.91 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
| CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $109.16 | $99.76 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | $104.46 | $121.79 | +16.6% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for COTY, the peer-implied price, is $9.43 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All household & personal products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Coty at a glance
Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded beauty products worldwide. It operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty.
- Market value
- $3.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Coty on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for COTY was $4.30. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $4.34, a change of +0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Coty's valuation
Is Coty stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts COTY's fair value at $4.34 a share against a last close of $3.29, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is COTY's fair value?
$4.34 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1.33 to $8.87.
What price range does the model give COTY?
$3.52 to $5.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has COTY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -22.4% around the report of 5 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for COTY is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on COTY
The model holds no idea open on COTY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on COTY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.