NYSE: CRC · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
California Resources (CRC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values California Resources (CRC) at $50.02 a share. The stock last closed at $52.43, which puts the model's fair value 4.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. California Resources Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States, in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $50.02 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -5.4% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $52.87. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $41.97 to $60.99, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 64 out of 100, with a Profitability score of 75 and an Earnings quality score of 83. The model compares the company with Crescent Energy Company (CRGY), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR), Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY), Matador Resources Company (MTDR), Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD), and Talos Energy Inc. (TALO). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median of 5.7%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CRC?
The calibrated range for CRC over 63 trading days is $41.97 to $60.99. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $36.60 to $66.44. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CRC score on business quality?
California Resources's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 14.8%ROIC | 9.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 46 | 21.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 1.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 18 | 2.55xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.38x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 5.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does CRC compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to California Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $34.60 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.07 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $37.11 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.46 | -33.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.20 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $73.80 | +37.9% | Undervalued |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | $137.01 | $191.26 | +39.6% | Undervalued |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | $16.78 | $24.70 | +47.2% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CRC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
California Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CRC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2026 | +3.9% |
| 5 May 2026 | -11.1% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | +2.8% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -1.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +3.4% |
| 6 May 2025 | +26.3% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -12.2% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +7.5% |
California Resources at a glance
California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management.
- Market value
- $4.7B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices California Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CRC was $52.87. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $50.02, a change of -5.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about California Resources's valuation
Is California Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CRC reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $50.02 a share against a last close of $52.43, a gap of -4.6%.
What is CRC's fair value?
$50.02 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $36.60 to $66.44.
What price range does the model give CRC?
$41.97 to $60.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does California Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CRC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +26.3% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CRC is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.