NYSE: CVNA · Auto Dealerships
Carvana (CVNA) fair value and price range
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Carvana (CVNA) at $60.65 a share. The stock last closed at $63.78, which puts the model's fair value 4.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Carvana Co.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States.
Faircurve's model on 1 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $60.65 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $63.08, so the fair value moved -3.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $52.72 to $88.97, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 64 out of 100. The model compares Carvana Co. with Penske Automotive Group, Inc., Rush Enterprises, Inc., and Valvoline Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 11.6%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CVNA?
The calibrated range for CVNA over 63 trading days is $52.72 to $88.97. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CVNA's own options imply (74% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $38.59 to $92.29. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CVNA score on business quality?
Carvana's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 97 | 17.9%ROIC | 6.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 35 | 0.59xFCF / net income | 2.86x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 95 | 48.6%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 73 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 21.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 18 | 7.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.7 pts |
How does CVNA compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Carvana in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | $204.03 | $168.66 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $54.92 | $27.73 | -49.5% | Low evidence grade |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $307.77 | $189.11 | -38.6% | Low evidence grade |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $47.18 | $45.69 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $162.46 | $144.19 | -11.2% | Low evidence grade |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $35.53 | $37.50 | +5.5% | Data under review |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | $30.58 | $29.27 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $175.88 | $210.65 | +19.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does CVNA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Carvana's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CVNA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 21.3% over one month.
How CVNA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -7.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -2.6% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -5.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -15.8% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +15.9% |
| 7 May 2025 | +10.3% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | -13.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +18.5% |
Carvana at a glance
Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States.
- Market value
- $71.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $34.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +42.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 2.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Carvana on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CVNA was $63.08. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $60.65, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Carvana's valuation
Is Carvana stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CVNA's fair value at $60.65 a share against a last close of $63.78, as of 1 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CVNA's fair value?
$60.65 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $38.59 to $92.29.
What price range does the model give CVNA?
$52.72 to $88.97 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Carvana report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CVNA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.5% around the report of 30 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CVNA is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.