NYSE: EAT · Restaurants
Brinker International (EAT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Brinker International (EAT) at $244.11 a share. The stock last closed at $202.00, which puts the model's fair value 20.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Brinker International, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Brinker International, Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the creation, management, and licensing of casual dining establishments across both domestic and international markets.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $244.11 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $245.06, a move of -0.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $204.80 to $297.65; this range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 74 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Texas Roadhouse, Inc., Dutch Bros Inc., CAVA Group, Inc., The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, and Darden Restaurants, Inc. The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 10.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EAT?
The calibrated range for EAT over 63 trading days is $204.80 to $297.65. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $156.78 to $366.52. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EAT score on business quality?
Brinker International's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 24.9%ROIC | 8.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | 1.14xFCF / net income | 0.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 31 | 7.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 5.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 75 | 1.96xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.94x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does EAT compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Brinker International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $297.62 | $311.88 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $156.14 | $178.34 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $54.41 | $41.16 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $100.18 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $200.33 | $214.99 | +7.3% | Fairly valued |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $106.89 | $108.38 | +1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $60.98 | $69.03 | +13.2% | Data under review |
When does EAT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Brinker International's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How EAT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | +7.8% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +17.9% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +2.1% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -13.0% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | +2.1% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +21.9% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +18.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +5.9% |
Brinker International at a glance
Brinker International, Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the creation, management, and licensing of casual dining establishments across both domestic and international markets.
- Market value
- $8.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.58
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Brinker International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EAT was $245.06. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $244.11, a change of -0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Brinker International's valuation
Is Brinker International stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EAT reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $244.11 a share against a last close of $202.00, a gap of +20.8%.
What is EAT's fair value?
$244.11 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $156.78 to $366.52.
What price range does the model give EAT?
$204.80 to $297.65 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Brinker International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EAT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +21.9% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EAT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.