NYSE: DRI · Restaurants
Darden Restaurants (DRI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Darden Restaurants (DRI) at $213.44 a share. The stock last closed at $200.33, which puts the model's fair value 6.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Darden Restaurants, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Darden Restaurants, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, focuses on the ownership and operation of full-service dining establishments across both the United States and Canada.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $213.44 a share on 3 Oct 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -0.7% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $214.90. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $178.08 to $258.76, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The company's overall quality score is 49 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Yum! Brands, Inc., Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., Texas Roadhouse, Inc., Brinker International, Inc., Dutch Bros Inc., CAVA Group, Inc., and The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DRI?
The calibrated range for DRI over 63 trading days is $178.08 to $258.76. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $158.59 to $276.69. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DRI score on business quality?
Darden Restaurants's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 16.1%ROIC | 24.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 38 | 0.89xFCF / net income | 0.97x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 58 | 9.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 3.1%Net buybacks / market value | 3.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 46 | 2.94xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does DRI compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Darden Restaurants in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $136.12 | $132.44 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $32.36 | $32.23 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $156.14 | $167.38 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $297.62 | $316.49 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $202.00 | $250.23 | +23.9% | Undervalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.04 | -6.8% | Fairly valued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $54.41 | $43.10 | -20.8% | Overvalued |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $98.11 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
When does DRI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Darden Restaurants's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How DRI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | -6.5% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | +0.1% |
| 19 Mar 2026 | +1.2% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | +0.2% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | -11.5% |
| 20 Jun 2025 | -0.6% |
| 20 Mar 2025 | +6.3% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | +17.3% |
Darden Restaurants at a glance
Darden Restaurants, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, focuses on the ownership and operation of full-service dining establishments across both the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $22.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Darden Restaurants on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DRI was $214.90. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $213.44, a change of -0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Darden Restaurants's valuation
Is Darden Restaurants stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DRI reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $213.44 a share against a last close of $200.33, a gap of +6.5%.
What is DRI's fair value?
$213.44 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $158.59 to $276.69.
What price range does the model give DRI?
$178.08 to $258.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Darden Restaurants report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DRI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.3% around the report of 19 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DRI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.