NYSE: CAVA · Restaurants
CAVA Group (CAVA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values CAVA Group (CAVA) at $46.56 a share. The stock last closed at $60.01, which puts the model's fair value 22.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. CAVA Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $42.45 to $46.56 (+9.7%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $60.01 is 22.4% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 10 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 8% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CAVA?
The calibrated range for CAVA over 63 trading days is $50.46 to $74.26. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CAVA's own options imply (58% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $31.14 to $68.34. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
CAVA Group, Inc. is a company that oversees and runs a chain of Mediterranean restaurants.
Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $46.56 a share for CAVA on 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $42.45, so the fair value moved +9.7%. In the model's words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $40.78 to $102.29. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations refreshed 31 Oct 2026. The evidence grade is Medium. It covers input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
CAVA's overall quality score is 58 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality stands out at 91, with trailing revenue growth of 22.4% against a peer median of 8.6%. Capital discipline is lower at 18, with net buybacks at 0.0% of market value against a peer median of 2.7%. The model compares CAVA with Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS), Brinker International, Inc. (EAT), Wingstop Inc. (WING), Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH), Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL).
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CAVA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
CAVA Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CAVA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.8% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CAVA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CAVA
How does CAVA score on business quality?
CAVA Group's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 6.8%ROIC | 6.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 58 | 0.74xFCF / net income | 0.92x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 91 | 22.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 18 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | 1.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 10 | 3.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does CAVA compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to CAVA Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $34.57 | $38.59 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $212.66 | $304.39 | +43.1% | Undervalued |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $341.63 | $350.00 | +2.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $165.73 | $145.67 | -12.1% | Fairly valued |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $191.79 | $192.57 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $69.82 | $88.50 | +26.8% | Data under review |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $228.67 | $255.26 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | $67.92 | $69.42 | +2.2% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CAVA, the peer-implied price, is $28.37 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
CAVA Group at a glance
CAVA Group, Inc. is a company that oversees and runs a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. Their culinary offerings encompass a range of salads, savory dips, spreads, various toppings, and distinctive dressings.
- Market value
- $6.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +27.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 22
- Beta to the US market
- 1.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CAVA was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices CAVA Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CAVA was $42.45. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $46.56, a change of +9.7%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about CAVA Group's valuation
Is CAVA Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CAVA reads as Overvalued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $46.56 a share against a last close of $60.01, a gap of -22.4%.
What is CAVA's fair value?
$46.56 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $31.14 to $68.34.
What price range does the model give CAVA?
$50.46 to $74.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does CAVA Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CAVA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +25.3% around the report of 24 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CAVA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CAVA
The model holds no idea open on CAVA today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CAVA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.