NYSE: BROS · Restaurants
Dutch Bros (BROS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Dutch Bros (BROS) at $38.59 a share. The stock last closed at $34.57, which puts the model's fair value 11.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Dutch Bros Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $36.47 to $38.59 (+5.8%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $34.57 is 11.6% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BROS?
The calibrated range for BROS over 63 trading days is $29.27 to $42.41. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BROS's own options imply (56% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.66 to $58.26. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Dutch Bros Inc. operates and licenses drive-thru establishments throughout the United States, in collaboration with its subsidiaries.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) at $38.59 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $36.47, so the fair value moved +5.8%. The model gives the reason in its own words: the companies it compares the stock with now trade on higher multiples, which is part of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $26.01 to $83.43. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices across 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium.
The model's overall quality score is 54 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Growth quality is the highest factor at 87, with trailing revenue growth of 27.9% against a peer median of 8.6%. Capital discipline is the lowest at 10, with net buybacks at 0.0% of market value against a peer median of 2.7%. Stability scores 0, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 10.9 pts against a peer median of 1.4 pts. The model compares the company with Brinker International, CAVA Group, Texas Roadhouse, Wingstop, Darden Restaurants and Chipotle Mexican Grill.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BROS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Dutch Bros's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BROS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.2% over one month.
How BROS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 18.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | -20.7% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | -16.8% |
| 6 May 2026 | -6.3% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -0.6% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -3.5% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +22.3% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +30.1% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +33.1% |
How does BROS score on business quality?
Dutch Bros's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 8.0%ROIC | 12.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | 1.03xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 87 | 27.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 10 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 54 | 3.16xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.92x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 10.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does BROS compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Dutch Bros in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $212.66 | $304.39 | +43.1% | Undervalued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $60.01 | $46.56 | -22.4% | Overvalued |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $341.63 | $350.00 | +2.5% | Low evidence grade |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $191.79 | $192.57 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $165.73 | $145.67 | -12.1% | Fairly valued |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $69.82 | $88.50 | +26.8% | Data under review |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $228.67 | $255.26 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $35.39 | $33.40 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BROS, the peer-implied price, is $32.38 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Dutch Bros at a glance
Dutch Bros Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, operates and licenses drive-thru establishments throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $8.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +30.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. BROS was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Dutch Bros on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BROS was $36.47. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $38.59, a change of +5.8%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Dutch Bros's valuation
Is Dutch Bros stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BROS reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $38.59 a share against a last close of $34.57, a gap of +11.6%.
What is BROS's fair value?
$38.59 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.66 to $58.26.
What price range does the model give BROS?
$29.27 to $42.41 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Dutch Bros report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BROS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 18.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +33.1% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BROS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BROS
The model holds no idea open on BROS today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BROS with their outcomes. A free account is enough.