NYSE: SHAK ยท Restaurants
Shake Shack (SHAK) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Shake Shack (SHAK) at $69.03 a share. The stock last closed at $60.98, which puts the model's fair value 13.2% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Shake Shack Inc.
What price range does the model give SHAK?
The calibrated range for SHAK over 63 trading days is $52.01 to $80.53. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SHAK's own options imply (62% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $47.33 to $99.68. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SHAK score on business quality?
Shake Shack's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 8.9%ROIC | 5.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 37 | 0.25xFCF / net income | 0.68x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 66 | 15.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 32 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.25xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.61x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 1.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.7 pts |
How does SHAK compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Shake Shack in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $106.89 | $108.38 | +1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $61.93 | $73.14 | +18.1% | Undervalued |
| WEN The Wendy's Company | $6.12 | $8.54 | +39.5% | Low evidence grade |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | $55.76 | $45.56 | -18.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $100.18 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $54.41 | $41.16 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | $19.43 | $23.18 | +19.3% | Low evidence grade |
When does SHAK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Shake Shack's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SHAK's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.8% over one month.
How SHAK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +6.1% |
| 7 May 2026 | -27.3% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +4.2% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +7.5% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -20.6% |
| 1 May 2025 | +54.7% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -2.3% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +7.1% |
Shake Shack at a glance
Shake Shack Inc. manages a global network of Shake Shack restaurants, known as Shacks, through a combination of direct ownership, operation, and licensing agreements in the United States and abroad.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +14.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Shake Shack on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SHAK was $68.20. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $69.03, a change of +1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Shake Shack's valuation
Is Shake Shack stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SHAK's fair value at $69.03 a share against a last close of $60.98, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is SHAK's fair value?
$69.03 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $47.33 to $99.68.
What price range does the model give SHAK?
$52.01 to $80.53 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Shake Shack report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SHAK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +54.7% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SHAK is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.