NASDAQ: EYE · Specialty Retail
National Vision (EYE) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values National Vision (EYE) at $15.00 a share. The stock last closed at $16.40, which puts the model's fair value 8.5% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. National Vision Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States. It conducts business through its Owned & Host, and Legacy divisions.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $15.00 a share on 29 Sep 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -2.5% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $15.38. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $12.58 to $18.29. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company's overall quality score is 48 out of 100, against comparable companies. These include Liquidity Services, Inc., Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc., and Winmark Corporation. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 8.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EYE?
The calibrated range for EYE over 63 trading days is $12.58 to $18.29. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $5.89 to $29.22. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EYE score on business quality?
National Vision's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 27 | 4.0%ROIC | 10.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 82 | 0.98xFCF / net income | 0.78x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 9.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 2.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 3.78xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.71x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 2.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does EYE compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to National Vision in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc. | $43.23 | $44.36 | +2.6% | Fairly valued |
| HZO MarineMax, Inc. | $52.35 | $50.02 | -4.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | $16.24 | $21.85 | +34.5% | Undervalued |
| WINA Winmark Corporation | $297.69 | $273.55 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| RH Rh | $120.46 | $85.01 | -29.4% | Low evidence grade |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $38.68 | $42.39 | +9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | $48.73 | $66.08 | +35.6% | Undervalued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $16.06 | $22.84 | +42.2% | Undervalued |
When does EYE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
National Vision's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How EYE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | -13.6% |
| 13 May 2026 | -15.4% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | +9.2% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -8.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -2.6% |
| 7 May 2025 | +94.0% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +8.1% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -4.7% |
National Vision at a glance
National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies. The company's operations are categorized into two primary divisions: Owned & Host, and Legacy.
- Market value
- $1.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices National Vision on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EYE was $15.38. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $15.00, a change of -2.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about National Vision's valuation
Is National Vision stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts EYE's fair value at $15.00 a share against a last close of $16.40, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is EYE's fair value?
$15.00 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $5.89 to $29.22.
What price range does the model give EYE?
$12.58 to $18.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does National Vision report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EYE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +94.0% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EYE is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.