NYSE: AAP · Specialty Retail
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Advance Auto Parts (AAP) at $42.39 a share. The stock last closed at $38.68, which puts the model's fair value 9.6% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. operates as a leading retailer and supplier of a comprehensive array of automotive replacement components, accessories, batteries, and essential maintenance supplies.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $42.39 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.9% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $42.76. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.14 to $50.68, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company's overall quality score is 28 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., Bath & Body Works, Inc., Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc., Liquidity Services, Inc., and Winmark Corporation. The stock's moves around its last eight earnings reports ranged from -24.2% to +47.7%, with a median size of 13.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AAP?
The calibrated range for AAP over 63 trading days is $33.14 to $50.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AAP's own options imply (60% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.19 to $89.53. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AAP score on business quality?
Advance Auto Parts's overall quality score is 28 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 21 | 6.2%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 30 | 0.27xFCF / net income | 1.00x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 19 | -5.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 66 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 28 | 3.91xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.84x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 24 | 3.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.7 pts |
How does AAP compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Advance Auto Parts in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RH Rh | $120.46 | $85.01 | -29.4% | Low evidence grade |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | $48.73 | $66.08 | +35.6% | Undervalued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $16.06 | $22.84 | +42.2% | Undervalued |
| SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | $16.24 | $21.85 | +34.5% | Undervalued |
| LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc. | $43.23 | $44.36 | +2.6% | Fairly valued |
| EYE National Vision Holdings, Inc. | $16.40 | $15.00 | -8.5% | Low evidence grade |
| HZO MarineMax, Inc. | $52.35 | $50.02 | -4.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WINA Winmark Corporation | $297.69 | $273.55 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
When does AAP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Advance Auto Parts's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AAP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.3% over one month.
How AAP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | -24.2% |
| 21 May 2026 | +13.1% |
| 13 Feb 2026 | -2.5% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -14.5% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -8.0% |
| 22 May 2025 | +47.7% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -19.4% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | -7.9% |
Advance Auto Parts at a glance
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. operates as a leading retailer and supplier of a comprehensive array of automotive replacement components, accessories, batteries, and essential maintenance supplies.
- Market value
- $2.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Advance Auto Parts on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AAP was $42.76. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $42.39, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Advance Auto Parts's valuation
Is Advance Auto Parts stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AAP's fair value at $42.39 a share against a last close of $38.68, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AAP's fair value?
$42.39 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.19 to $89.53.
What price range does the model give AAP?
$33.14 to $50.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Advance Auto Parts report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AAP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +47.7% around the report of 22 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AAP is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.