NYSE: HZO · Specialty Retail
MarineMax (HZO) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MarineMax (HZO) at $55.33 a share. The stock last closed at $52.35, which puts the model's fair value 5.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. MarineMax, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
MarineMax, Inc. functions as a leading provider in the United States, focusing on the sale of leisure boats and luxury yachts, in addition to offering comprehensive superyacht services.
Faircurve's model valued MarineMax, Inc. at $55.33 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $50.02, so the fair value moved +10.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $46.16 to $67.08, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for the business is 43 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Winmark Corporation (WINA), Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT), Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH), and Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from close before to close after, with a median size of 6.6%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HZO?
The calibrated range for HZO over 63 trading days is $46.16 to $67.08. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.27 to $104.24. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HZO score on business quality?
MarineMax's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 3.4%ROIC | 4.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 44.70xFCF / net income | 2.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 12 | -5.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 3.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 9 | 11.72xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.85x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does HZO compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to MarineMax in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WINA Winmark Corporation | $297.69 | $274.37 | -7.8% | Fairly valued |
| EYE National Vision Holdings, Inc. | $16.40 | $15.20 | -7.3% | Low evidence grade |
| LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc. | $43.23 | $44.09 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
| SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | $16.24 | $20.34 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
| RH Rh | $120.46 | $79.85 | -33.7% | Low evidence grade |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $38.68 | $39.93 | +3.2% | Low evidence grade |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | $48.73 | $65.48 | +34.4% | Undervalued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $16.06 | $18.36 | +14.3% | Low evidence grade |
When does HZO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
MarineMax's next earnings report is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HZO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +10.4% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +1.5% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +0.6% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | -1.0% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -15.8% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +22.0% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | +9.6% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -3.6% |
MarineMax at a glance
MarineMax, Inc. functions as a leading provider in the United States, focusing on the sale of leisure boats and luxury yachts, in addition to offering comprehensive superyacht services.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.55
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MarineMax on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HZO was $50.02. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $55.33, a change of +10.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MarineMax's valuation
Is MarineMax stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HZO's fair value at $55.33 a share against a last close of $52.35, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is HZO's fair value?
$55.33 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.27 to $104.24.
What price range does the model give HZO?
$46.16 to $67.08 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does MarineMax report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HZO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.0% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HZO is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.