NYSE: SBH · Specialty Retail
Sally Beauty (SBH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Sally Beauty (SBH) at $21.85 a share. The stock last closed at $16.24, which puts the model's fair value 34.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. functions as a specialized vendor and distributor of professional beauty products. The company’s operations are divided into two main business units: Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $21.85 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +8.8% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $20.09. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $18.33 to $26.64, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The business scored 54 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its quality factors included Profitability 63, Earnings quality 67, Growth quality 21, Capital discipline 58, Balance sheet 27, and Stability 83. Faircurve's model compared it with Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT), Winmark Corporation (WINA), Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO), and Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 5.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SBH?
The calibrated range for SBH over 63 trading days is $18.33 to $26.64. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $14.65 to $30.13. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SBH score on business quality?
Sally Beauty's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 63 | 10.6%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 67 | 1.25xFCF / net income | 0.98x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 21 | -0.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 5.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 3.44xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does SBH compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Sally Beauty in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc. | $43.23 | $44.36 | +2.6% | Fairly valued |
| EYE National Vision Holdings, Inc. | $16.40 | $15.00 | -8.5% | Low evidence grade |
| HZO MarineMax, Inc. | $52.35 | $50.02 | -4.5% | Low evidence grade |
| RH Rh | $120.46 | $85.01 | -29.4% | Low evidence grade |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $38.68 | $42.39 | +9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| WINA Winmark Corporation | $297.69 | $273.55 | -8.1% | Fairly valued |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | $48.73 | $66.08 | +35.6% | Undervalued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $16.06 | $22.84 | +42.2% | Undervalued |
When does SBH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sally Beauty's next earnings report is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SBH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +10.6% |
| 11 May 2026 | -10.9% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -3.5% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | -3.4% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +20.8% |
| 12 May 2025 | +2.7% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +1.2% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | +7.0% |
Sally Beauty at a glance
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. functions as a specialized vendor and distributor of professional beauty products. The company’s operations are divided into two main business units: Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group.
- Market value
- $1.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.68
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sally Beauty on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SBH was $20.09. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $21.85, a change of +8.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sally Beauty's valuation
Is Sally Beauty stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SBH reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $21.85 a share against a last close of $16.24, a gap of +34.5%.
What is SBH's fair value?
$21.85 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $14.65 to $30.13.
What price range does the model give SBH?
$18.33 to $26.64 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Sally Beauty report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 12 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SBH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.8% around the report of 5 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SBH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.