NASDAQ: FAST · Industrial Distribution
Fastenal (FAST) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Fastenal (FAST) at $41.61 a share. The stock last closed at $50.75, which puts the model's fair value 18.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Fastenal Company.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Fastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials. It has significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other.
Faircurve's model valued Fastenal Company at $41.61 a share on 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $42.30, meaning the fair value moved -1.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.91 to $50.74, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model’s evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The business scores 76 out of 100 for overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, with ROIC at 31.4% against a peer median of 8.4%. Its earnings quality score is 24, with FCF / net income at 0.76x against a peer median of 0.95x. The model compares Fastenal Company with W.W. Grainger, Inc., Ferguson plc, WESCO International, Inc., Watsco, Inc., Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc., Core & Main, Inc., MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., and Pool Corporation. Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median size of 5.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FAST?
The calibrated range for FAST over 63 trading days is $34.91 to $50.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.62 to $49.47. In 20% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FAST score on business quality?
Fastenal's overall quality score is 76 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 31.4%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 24 | 0.76xFCF / net income | 0.95x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 90 | 8.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | 0.12xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.24x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 89 | 0.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does FAST compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial distribution closest to Fastenal in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $1,280.30 | $1,213.26 | -5.2% | Fairly valued |
| FERG Ferguson plc | $223.33 | $263.05 | +17.8% | Undervalued |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $381.73 | $381.50 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | $297.47 | $301.93 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $343.45 | $302.49 | -11.9% | Fairly valued |
| CNM Core & Main, Inc. | $41.35 | $58.41 | +41.3% | Undervalued |
| MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $130.12 | $107.83 | -17.1% | Overvalued |
| POOL Pool Corporation | $161.42 | $169.30 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
All industrial distribution stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does FAST report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Fastenal's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How FAST moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | -3.6% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | -9.3% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | +2.0% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | -6.6% |
| 14 Jul 2025 | +4.3% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | +7.3% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | +1.8% |
| 11 Oct 2024 | +9.6% |
Fastenal at a glance
Fastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials, with significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other.
- Market value
- $57.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.57
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Fastenal on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FAST was $42.30. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $41.61, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Fastenal's valuation
Is Fastenal stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FAST reads as Overvalued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $41.61 a share against a last close of $50.75, a gap of -18.0%.
What is FAST's fair value?
$41.61 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.62 to $49.47.
What price range does the model give FAST?
$34.91 to $50.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Fastenal report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FAST moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.6% around the report of 11 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FAST is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.