NYSE: FERG · Industrial Distribution
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) at $244.69 a share. The stock last closed at $235.65, which puts the model's fair value 3.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $231.58 to $244.69 (+5.7%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $235.65 is 3.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FERG?
The calibrated range for FERG over 63 trading days is $210.87 to $270.11. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that FERG's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $180.79 to $328.44. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Ferguson plc supplies plumbing, heating and related industrial products. It operates throughout the United States and Canada.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $244.69 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $231.58, so the fair value moved +5.7%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $217.46 to $275.94. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 60 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. That score is a composite of six quality factors. Profitability scores 83, with ROIC of 18.1% against a peer median of 11.9%. Stability scores 78, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.5 pts against a peer median of 0.9 pts. Earnings quality scores 27, with FCF / net income of 0.62x against a peer median of 0.92x. The model compares the company with Fastenal Company (FAST), W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW), WESCO International, Inc. (WCC), Watsco, Inc. (WSO), Core & Main, Inc. (CNM), Pool Corporation (POOL) and MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM). Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) is also a comparable company, with no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does FERG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. FERG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.8% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 FERG moved 5.2% in one session, against the 2.3% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FERG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in FERG
How does FERG score on business quality?
Ferguson Enterprises's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 18.1%ROIC | 11.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 27 | 0.62xFCF / net income | 0.92x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 48 | -71.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | 1.85xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.25x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does FERG compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial distribution closest to Ferguson Enterprises in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST Fastenal Company | $52.90 | $44.05 | -16.7% | Overvalued |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $1,451.39 | $1,301.09 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $286.47 | $336.59 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | $311.14 | $289.79 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $280.90 | $297.48 | +5.9% | Data under review |
| CNM Core & Main, Inc. | $46.95 | $61.75 | +31.5% | Undervalued |
| POOL Pool Corporation | $216.66 | $203.28 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $110.95 | $125.85 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for FERG, the peer-implied price, is $254.69 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All industrial distribution stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Ferguson Enterprises at a glance
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes essential water and air solutions to specialized professional in the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $46.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $36.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +303.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 8 Aug 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. FERG was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ferguson Enterprises on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FERG was $231.58. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $244.69, a change of +5.7%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ferguson Enterprises's valuation
Is Ferguson Enterprises stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FERG reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $244.69 a share against a last close of $235.65, a gap of +3.8%.
What is FERG's fair value?
$244.69 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $180.79 to $328.44.
What price range does the model give FERG?
$210.87 to $270.11 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has FERG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.1% around the report of 10 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FERG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FERG
The model holds no idea open on FERG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FERG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.