NYSE: GWW · Industrial Distribution
W.W. Grainger (GWW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values W.W. Grainger (GWW) at $1,213.26 a share. The stock last closed at $1,280.30, which puts the model's fair value 5.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
W.W. Grainger, Inc. is a significant global supplier of maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) supplies and related services. Its market presence spans the United States, Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $1,213.26 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +0.7% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $1,204.57. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $1,017.90 to $1,479.35, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade for this valuation was High.
The business has an overall quality score of 57 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 75, with ROIC at 30.1% against a peer median of 12.3%. The model compares it with Fastenal Company, Ferguson plc, WESCO International, Inc., Watsco, Inc., Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc., Core & Main, Inc., MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., and Pool Corporation. The median size of moves around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GWW?
The calibrated range for GWW over 63 trading days is $1,017.90 to $1,479.35. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $993.30 to $1,471.32. In 46% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GWW score on business quality?
W.W. Grainger's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 30.1%ROIC | 12.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | 0.81xFCF / net income | 1.09x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 56 | 4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 38 | 1.7%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 91 | 0.75xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.26x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does GWW compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial distribution closest to W.W. Grainger in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST Fastenal Company | $50.75 | $41.61 | -18.0% | Overvalued |
| FERG Ferguson plc | $223.33 | $263.05 | +17.8% | Undervalued |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $381.73 | $381.50 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | $297.47 | $301.93 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $343.45 | $302.49 | -11.9% | Fairly valued |
| CNM Core & Main, Inc. | $41.35 | $58.41 | +41.3% | Undervalued |
| MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $130.12 | $107.83 | -17.1% | Overvalued |
| POOL Pool Corporation | $161.42 | $169.30 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
All industrial distribution stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does GWW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
W.W. Grainger's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How GWW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -6.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | +5.5% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +9.0% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | +1.1% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | -9.7% |
| 1 May 2025 | +4.3% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -7.0% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +0.5% |
W.W. Grainger at a glance
W.W. Grainger, Inc. stands as a significant global supplier of maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) supplies and related services. Its market presence spans several international regions, including the United States, Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
- Market value
- $58.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $20.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices W.W. Grainger on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GWW was $1,204.57. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $1,213.26, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about W.W. Grainger's valuation
Is W.W. Grainger stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GWW reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $1,213.26 a share against a last close of $1,280.30, a gap of -5.2%.
What is GWW's fair value?
$1,213.26 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $993.30 to $1,471.32.
What price range does the model give GWW?
$1,017.90 to $1,479.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does W.W. Grainger report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GWW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -9.7% around the report of 1 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GWW is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.