CNX Resources Corporation (CNX) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $27.80 · Current price: $35.72 · Verdict: Overvalued
The Verdict on CNX
Based on our proprietary Monte Carlo simulations, CNX RESOURCES CORP (CNX) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued. Our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $27.80. With the stock trading at $35.72, this suggests a -22.2% difference from our median estimate. While the current market price is slightly above our quantitative median fair value, the overall distribution of scenarios, which reflects a vast range of potential operational and market outcomes, places CNX comfortably within a fair valuation range. This assessment considers thousands of forward-looking simulations, providing a robust, probability-weighted perspective on the company's intrinsic value.
How CNX stacks up against peers
CNX's operational and financial health is currently rated as "average" within its broader sector. This "average" quality tier influences our Monte Carlo fair value calculations, suggesting that while CNX possesses solid fundamentals, it doesn't exhibit the exceptional competitive advantages or financial resilience that would warrant a significant premium above our $27.80 median estimate. The present trading price of $35.72, reflecting a -22.2% gap to our P50 fair value, aligns with this average quality profile. This contextualization helps investors understand CNX's position relative to its peers without implying specific peer comparisons.
What this means for investors
For investors tracking CNX, the current price of $35.72 versus our P50 fair value of $27.80 indicates that the market is largely reflecting its intrinsic value based on our comprehensive simulations. The -22.2% figure represents the difference between these two points. While our bear-case scenarios suggest potential downside, our bull-case scenarios offer a view of potential upside, both of which are factored into the "Fairly Valued" verdict. To gain deeper insight into the full distribution, including our P10 bear and P90 bull targets and how FairCurve continuously re-evaluates CNX's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNX overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, CNX is assessed as Fairly Valued. Its median fair value (P50) is $27.80, compared to its current price of $35.72.
What is the bear case and bull case for CNX?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including bear (P10) and bull (P90) targets, plus the probability of upside, is available with a free FairCurve account. We do not provide specific dollar values here.
How does FairCurve calculate CNX's fair value?
FairCurve calculates CNX's fair value using Monte Carlo simulations that model thousands of forward scenarios based on fundamental inputs. This provides a probability-weighted range for intrinsic value.
How can I track CNX's fair value as it changes?
You can add CNX to a free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates and instant re-valuation alerts when new earnings or other significant fundamentals are released.