NASDAQ: TRUP · Property & Casualty Insurance
Trupanion (TRUP) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Trupanion (TRUP) at $15.15 a share. The stock last closed at $23.58, which puts the model's fair value 35.8% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Trupanion, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Trupanion, Inc. provides monthly subscription-based medical insurance for canine and feline companions across the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Australia. The company operates in Financial Services, specifically Property & Casualty Insurance.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $15.15 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +0.4% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $15.09. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $12.71 to $18.47, built from the fair value. This range was calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026) and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
Faircurve's model compares Trupanion, Inc. with Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT), HCI Group, Inc. (HCI), and Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +14.2% on 5 Aug 2026, -3.0% on 30 Apr 2026, -13.5% on 12 Feb 2026, -9.2% on 6 Nov 2025, +0.4% on 7 Aug 2025, +49.6% on 1 May 2025, -27.3% on 19 Feb 2025, and +2.9% on 30 Oct 2024. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TRUP?
The calibrated range for TRUP over 63 trading days is $12.71 to $18.47. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $11.75 to $19.15. In 7% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TRUP compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Trupanion in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | $54.62 | $49.94 | -8.6% | Low evidence grade |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | $25.67 | $23.56 | -8.2% | Low evidence grade |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | $103.92 | $52.38 | -49.6% | Overvalued |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | $51.55 | $33.07 | -35.8% | Low evidence grade |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | $45.26 | $42.31 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $184.25 | $256.23 | +39.1% | Undervalued |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $126.49 | $93.01 | -26.5% | Overvalued |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $55.94 | $45.60 | -18.5% | Low evidence grade |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TRUP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Trupanion's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 18.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TRUP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +14.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -3.0% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -13.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -9.2% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +0.4% |
| 1 May 2025 | +49.6% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | -27.3% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +2.9% |
Trupanion at a glance
Trupanion, Inc. provides monthly subscription-based medical insurance for canine and feline companions across the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Australia.
- Market value
- $1.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Trupanion on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TRUP was $15.09. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $15.15, a change of +0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Trupanion's valuation
Is Trupanion stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TRUP's fair value at $15.15 a share against a last close of $23.58, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is TRUP's fair value?
$15.15 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $11.75 to $19.15.
What price range does the model give TRUP?
$12.71 to $18.47 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Trupanion report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TRUP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +49.6% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TRUP is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.