NASDAQ: HOOD · Capital Markets
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Robinhood Markets (HOOD) at $95.89 a share. The stock last closed at $112.74, which puts the model's fair value 14.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform available to users throughout the United States.
On 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $95.89 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a -5.9% move from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $101.92. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $96.32 to $148.46, built around the price from the stock's own options and refreshed on 26 Sep 2026, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The business scored 30 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compared it with Evercore Inc. (EVR). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -16.2% to +19.6%, with a median size of 8.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HOOD?
The calibrated range for HOOD over 63 trading days is $96.32 to $148.46. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HOOD's own options imply (61% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $71.15 to $126.83. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HOOD score on business quality?
Robinhood Markets's overall quality score is 30 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | 7.3%ROIC | 17.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 1 | 0.09xFCF / net income | 1.05x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 100 | 51.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 0.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 30 | 7.35xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 38.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.5 pts |
How does HOOD compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to Robinhood Markets in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | $96.70 | $74.21 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $902.56 | $957.45 | +6.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MS Morgan Stanley | $190.31 | $151.68 | -20.3% | Low evidence grade |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $58.79 | $60.92 | +3.6% | Data under review |
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $261.68 | $325.22 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $45.97 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $65.81 | $59.85 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $164.14 | $132.11 | -19.5% | Low evidence grade |
When does HOOD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Robinhood Markets's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HOOD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.6% over one month.
How HOOD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -6.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -15.2% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | -9.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -7.1% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -0.3% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -5.6% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +19.6% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -16.2% |
Robinhood Markets at a glance
Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform available to users throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $107.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 17
- Beta to the US market
- 3.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Robinhood Markets on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HOOD was $101.92. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $95.89, a change of -5.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Robinhood Markets's valuation
Is Robinhood Markets stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HOOD reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $95.89 a share against a last close of $112.74, a gap of -14.9%.
What is HOOD's fair value?
$95.89 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $71.15 to $126.83.
What price range does the model give HOOD?
$96.32 to $148.46 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Robinhood Markets report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HOOD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.6% around the report of 12 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HOOD is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.