NYSE: MS · Capital Markets
Morgan Stanley (MS) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Morgan Stanley (MS) at $151.68 a share. The stock last closed at $190.31, which puts the model's fair value 20.3% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Morgan Stanley.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Morgan Stanley operates as a prominent financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial solutions and services.
Faircurve's model found Morgan Stanley's fair value to be $151.68 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $154.56, meaning the fair value moved -1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $174.07 to $222.42, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares Morgan Stanley with Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) and Evercore Inc. (EVR). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, were: 15 Jul 2026 -4.1%, 15 Apr 2026 +2.2%, 15 Jan 2026 +4.6%, 15 Oct 2025 +3.0%, 16 Jul 2025 -0.5%, 11 Apr 2025 +2.4%, 16 Jan 2025 +5.6%, and 16 Oct 2024 +6.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MS?
The calibrated range for MS over 63 trading days is $174.07 to $222.42. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MS's own options imply (35% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $117.73 to $191.79. In 18% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MS compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to Morgan Stanley in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $902.56 | $957.45 | +6.1% | Low evidence grade |
| SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | $96.70 | $74.21 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | $112.74 | $95.89 | -14.9% | Fairly valued |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $58.79 | $60.92 | +3.6% | Data under review |
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $261.68 | $325.22 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $45.97 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $65.81 | $59.85 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $164.14 | $132.11 | -19.5% | Low evidence grade |
When does MS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Morgan Stanley's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.0% over one month.
How MS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | -4.1% |
| 15 Apr 2026 | +2.2% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | +4.6% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | +3.0% |
| 16 Jul 2025 | -0.5% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | +2.4% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | +5.6% |
| 16 Oct 2024 | +6.4% |
Morgan Stanley at a glance
Morgan Stanley operates as a prominent financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial solutions and services.
- Market value
- $309.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -28.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.59
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Morgan Stanley on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MS was $154.56. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $151.68, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Morgan Stanley's valuation
Is Morgan Stanley stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MS's fair value at $151.68 a share against a last close of $190.31, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MS's fair value?
$151.68 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $117.73 to $191.79.
What price range does the model give MS?
$174.07 to $222.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Morgan Stanley report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.4% around the report of 16 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MS is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.