NYSE: M · Department Stores
Macy's (M) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Macy's (M) at $25.60 a share. The stock last closed at $24.19, which puts the model's fair value 5.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Macy's, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $25.13 to $25.60 (+1.9%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $24.19 is 5.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 2 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give M?
The calibrated range for M over 63 trading days is $20.59 to $29.48. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that M's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $14.62 to $39.85. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
Macy's, Inc. is a prominent retail enterprise that employs an omnichannel strategy, serving customers through its extensive network of physical department stores, dedicated e-commerce websites, and convenient mobile applications.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Macy's at $25.60 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 2 Nov 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $25.13; the fair value moved +1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $22.15 to $30.86. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, based on input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Macy's scores 49 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors. Earnings quality is the strongest at 73, with FCF / net income at 1.99x against a peer median of 1.21x. Growth quality scores 25, with trailing revenue growth at -1.7% against a peer median of -0.2%. Stability scores 19, with EBITDA margin downside volatility at 1.8 pts over five years against a peer median of 1.5 pts. The model compares Macy's with H&R Block, Inc. (HRB), Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) and Lear Corporation (LEA).
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does M report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Macy's's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. M's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.6% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 M moved 7.6% in one session, against the 3.3% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across M's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in M
How does M score on business quality?
Macy's's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 47 | 9.7%ROIC | 12.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.99xFCF / net income | 1.21x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 25 | -1.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 5.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 1.86xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 19 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does M compare with similar companies?
The companies in department stores closest to Macy's in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSS Kohl's Corporation | $23.88 | $24.50 | +2.6% | Low evidence grade |
| HRB H&R Block, Inc. | $55.01 | $57.42 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $98.18 | $97.75 | -0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| FTDR Frontdoor, Inc. | $95.98 | $86.58 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $316.52 | $249.55 | -21.2% | Low evidence grade |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $188.12 | $276.95 | +47.2% | Data under review |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.18 | $28.86 | -1.1% | Low evidence grade |
| LEA Lear Corporation | $114.10 | $183.77 | +61.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for M, the peer-implied price, is $30.26 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Macy's at a glance
Macy's, Inc. is a prominent retail enterprise that employs an omnichannel strategy, serving customers through its extensive network of physical department stores, dedicated e-commerce websites, and convenient mobile applications.
- Market value
- $6.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Department Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $21.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.85
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. M was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Macy's on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for M was $25.13. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $25.60, a change of +1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Macy's's valuation
Is Macy's stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, M reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $25.60 a share against a last close of $24.19, a gap of +5.8%.
What is M's fair value?
$25.60 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $14.62 to $39.85.
What price range does the model give M?
$20.59 to $29.48 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Macy's report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has M moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +27.8% around the report of 3 Sep 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for M is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on M
The model holds no idea open on M today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on M with their outcomes. A free account is enough.