NYSE: KSS · Department Stores
Kohl's (KSS) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Kohl's (KSS) at $20.02 a share. The stock last closed at $18.81, which puts the model's fair value 6.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Kohl's Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Kohl's Corporation functions as a prominent retail chain operating throughout the United States. It is in the Consumer Cyclical, Department Stores sector.
Faircurve's model on 28 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $20.02 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +6.5% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $18.79. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $16.31 to $24.15; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict was shown.
The overall quality score was 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. The comparable companies were Macy's, Inc. (M), Interface, Inc. (TILE), LCI Industries (LCII), Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI), and The Buckle, Inc. (BKE). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 14.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KSS?
The calibrated range for KSS over 63 trading days is $16.31 to $24.15. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that KSS's own options imply (55% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1.58 to $43.79. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KSS score on business quality?
Kohl's's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 5.0%ROIC | 7.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 79 | 3.66xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 25 | -4.3%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 45 | 4.34xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does KSS compare with similar companies?
The companies in department stores closest to Kohl's in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Macy's, Inc. | $22.73 | $24.93 | +9.7% | Fairly valued |
| TILE Interface, Inc. | $34.89 | $36.65 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| LCII LCI Industries | $82.81 | $92.41 | +11.6% | Fairly valued |
| WHR Whirlpool Corporation | $30.31 | $19.83 | -34.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $14.77 | $14.95 | +1.2% | Low evidence grade |
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | $117.55 | $117.10 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $62.83 | $39.53 | -37.1% | Low evidence grade |
| BKE The Buckle, Inc. | $42.90 | $48.27 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
When does KSS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Kohl's's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. KSS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.0% over one month.
How KSS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 14.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | +2.7% |
| 28 May 2026 | +11.1% |
| 10 Mar 2026 | -6.8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | +53.2% |
| 27 Aug 2025 | +17.9% |
| 29 May 2025 | +6.1% |
| 11 Mar 2025 | -28.5% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | -19.6% |
Kohl's at a glance
Kohl's Corporation functions as a prominent retail chain operating throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Department Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 1.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Kohl's on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KSS was $18.79. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $20.02, a change of +6.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Kohl's's valuation
Is Kohl's stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts KSS's fair value at $20.02 a share against a last close of $18.81, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is KSS's fair value?
$20.02 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1.58 to $43.79.
What price range does the model give KSS?
$16.31 to $24.15 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Kohl's report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KSS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 14.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +53.2% around the report of 25 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KSS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.