NASDAQ: FTDR · Personal Products & Services
Frontdoor (FTDR) fair value and price range
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Frontdoor (FTDR) at $77.23 a share. The stock last closed at $77.24, which puts the model's fair value in line with the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Frontdoor, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Frontdoor, Inc. operates as a U.S.-based provider of extensive home service plans. These comprehensive plans are designed to cover the repair or replacement of key components for roughly two dozen household systems and appliances.
Faircurve's model on 1 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $77.23 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $78.61, so the fair value moved -1.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $64.79 to $94.17, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026), and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score is 81 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with H&R Block, Inc., Service Corporation International, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc., The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc., and Installed Building Products, Inc. The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports by +18.9%, +13.6%, +21.8%, -24.9%, -2.7%, +47.4%, -20.4%, and +10.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FTDR?
The calibrated range for FTDR over 63 trading days is $64.79 to $94.17. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $45.83 to $124.74. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FTDR score on business quality?
Frontdoor's overall quality score is 81 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 39.0%ROIC | 7.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 1.41xFCF / net income | 0.96x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 68 | 13.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 88 | 5.8%Net buybacks / market value | 4.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 71 | 1.07xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.05x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 23 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does FTDR compare with similar companies?
The companies in personal products & services closest to Frontdoor in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRB H&R Block, Inc. | $41.68 | $47.68 | +14.4% | Fairly valued |
| SCI Service Corporation International | $77.14 | $71.20 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $71.79 | $62.96 | -12.3% | Fairly valued |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $100.18 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $67.25 | $77.99 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| FND Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | $45.49 | $43.64 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $193.00 | $186.89 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.74 | $57.78 | +18.5% | Low evidence grade |
When does FTDR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Frontdoor's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 14.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How FTDR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 19.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +18.9% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +13.6% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +21.8% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -24.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -2.7% |
| 1 May 2025 | +47.4% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -20.4% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +10.7% |
Frontdoor at a glance
Frontdoor, Inc. operates as a U.S.-based provider of extensive home service plans. These comprehensive plans are designed to cover the repair or replacement of key components for roughly two dozen household systems and appliances.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Personal Products & Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.61
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Frontdoor on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FTDR was $78.61. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $77.23, a change of -1.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Frontdoor's valuation
Is Frontdoor stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts FTDR's fair value at $77.23 a share against a last close of $77.24, as of 1 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is FTDR's fair value?
$77.23 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $45.83 to $124.74.
What price range does the model give FTDR?
$64.79 to $94.17 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Frontdoor report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FTDR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 19.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +47.4% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FTDR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.