NASDAQ: MCRI · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) at $116.76 a share. The stock last closed at $117.55, which puts the model's fair value 0.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) owns and manages two hotel and casino destinations: the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada, and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve’s model gave a fair value of $116.76 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $117.10, so the fair value moved -0.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $97.41 to $141.55, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model’s evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The business scores 69 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares it with Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) and Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN). The stock moved a median 7.4% around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MCRI?
The calibrated range for MCRI over 63 trading days is $97.41 to $141.55. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $94.77 to $142.06. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MCRI score on business quality?
Monarch Casino & Resort's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 24.8%ROIC | 8.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 53 | 1.35xFCF / net income | 1.54x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 48 | 4.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 3.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 99 | -0.72xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.3 pts |
How does MCRI compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to Monarch Casino & Resort in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $14.77 | $15.36 | +4.0% | Low evidence grade |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $50.31 | $63.02 | +25.3% | Undervalued |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $104.20 | $105.38 | +1.1% | Low evidence grade |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $67.25 | $77.99 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $141.16 | $112.18 | -20.5% | Overvalued |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $76.05 | $72.28 | -5.0% | Low evidence grade |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.65 | $32.15 | +8.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $30.48 | $2.19 | -92.8% | Data under review |
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MCRI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Monarch Casino & Resort's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MCRI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026 | -4.5% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | +15.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +1.8% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -3.4% |
| 16 Jul 2025 | +22.1% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +9.9% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | +8.4% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +6.3% |
Monarch Casino & Resort at a glance
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) is a company that, through its various subsidiaries, owns and manages two prominent hotel and casino destinations: the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada, and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk located in.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $579M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Monarch Casino & Resort on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MCRI was $117.10. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $116.76, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Monarch Casino & Resort's valuation
Is Monarch Casino & Resort stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MCRI reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $116.76 a share against a last close of $117.55, a gap of -0.7%.
What is MCRI's fair value?
$116.76 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $94.77 to $142.06.
What price range does the model give MCRI?
$97.41 to $141.55 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Monarch Casino & Resort report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MCRI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.1% around the report of 16 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MCRI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.