NYSE: NLY ยท Mortgage REITs
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) fair value and price range
As of 20 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Annaly Capital Management (NLY) at $23.13 a share. The stock last closed at $21.05, which puts the model's fair value 9.9% above the price. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
What price range does the model give NLY?
The calibrated range for NLY over 63 trading days is $19.64 to $23.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NLY's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.96 to $29.25. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NLY compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Annaly Capital Management in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $14.94 | $9.10 | -39.1% | Low model confidence |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $13.27 | $7.79 | -41.3% | Low model confidence |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $14.68 | $23.52 | +60.2% | Outside the model's reliable range |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $12.44 | $13.54 | +8.8% | Low model confidence |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $6.42 | $4.32 | -32.7% | Low model confidence |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $4.28 | $5.31 | +24.1% | Low model confidence |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $8.91 | $10.86 | +21.9% | Low model confidence |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $8.80 | $9.40 | +6.8% | Low model confidence |
When does NLY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Annaly Capital Management's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NLY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.2% over one month.
How NLY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -1.2% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -0.1% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -1.5% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -0.8% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +0.8% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +2.9% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +2.9% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +0.3% |
Annaly Capital Management at a glance
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates as a multifaceted financial firm, specializing in managing capital across various sectors. Its core business encompasses mortgage-related investments and lending to middle-market corporations.
- Market value
- $15.9B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -62.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Annaly Capital Management on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NLY was $21.57. As of 20 Sep 2026 it is $23.13, a change of +7.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Annaly Capital Management's valuation
Is Annaly Capital Management stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts NLY's fair value at $23.13 a share against a last close of $21.05, as of 20 Sep 2026. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
What is NLY's fair value?
$23.13 a share as of 20 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.96 to $29.25.
What price range does the model give NLY?
$19.64 to $23.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Annaly Capital Management report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NLY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +2.9% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for NLY is low. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.