Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $20.42 · Current price: $22.78 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on NLY

Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT REIT INC (NLY) is Fairly Valued at its $22.78 level. The median fair value (P50) derived from our analysis stands at $20.42. This implies an -10.4% difference compared to the current market price, positioning NLY close to its intrinsic value. While some investors might perceive $22.78 as potentially overextended given the -10.4% figure against the $20.42, our framework suggests the stock is appropriately priced within its probabilistic distribution.

How NLY stacks up against peers

With NLY currently trading at $22.78, its valuation against the $20.42 median fair value implies it is reasonably aligned with market expectations for its asset class. As a REIT, NLY operates without a specific sector quality tier assigned in our current analysis, which means its operational and financial health is unrated in this context. Investors evaluating NLY at $22.78 should note the $20.42 suggests limited immediate mispricing, whether in an upside or downside scenario, relative to its peers. The -10.4% difference underscores this equilibrium.

What this means for investors

For investors considering ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT REIT INC, the "Fairly Valued" verdict, with NLY at $22.78 and a median fair value of $20.42, suggests that the market has largely priced in the company's current fundamentals. The -10.4% difference indicates that significant alpha from a simple valuation gap is not immediately apparent. While the unrated quality tier means further fundamental due diligence is warranted, our FairCurve analysis provides a robust probabilistic valuation perspective. To fully explore NLY's potential, including the bear (P10) and bull (P90) case distributions and track its fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.