NASDAQ: AMZN · Specialty Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Amazon.com (AMZN) at $257.34 a share. The stock last closed at $251.52, which puts the model's fair value 2.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Amazon.com, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Amazon.com, Inc. operates a vast global retail enterprise, distributing consumer goods and subscription services through both its extensive online platforms and a network of physical stores across North America and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 2 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $257.34 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $258.74, so the fair value moved -0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $228.30 to $297.93; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 29 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with MercadoLibre, Inc., O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., eBay Inc., Williams-Sonoma, Inc., Ulta Beauty, Inc., Casey's General Stores, Inc., and Best Buy Co., Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AMZN?
The calibrated range for AMZN over 63 trading days is $228.30 to $297.93. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AMZN's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $171.60 to $377.95. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AMZN score on business quality?
Amazon.com's overall quality score is 29 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | 10.4%ROIC | 23.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 23 | -0.09xFCF / net income | 0.66x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | 12.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 17.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 42 | 0.57xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.49x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.8 pts |
How does AMZN compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Amazon.com in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $75.38 | $87.30 | +15.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1,696.56 | $1,825.28 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $84.90 | $90.35 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | $106.40 | $116.78 | +9.8% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $232.30 | $209.39 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $543.69 | $570.28 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $617.76 | $583.98 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $87.97 | $113.73 | +29.3% | Undervalued |
When does AMZN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Amazon.com's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AMZN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.8% over one month.
How AMZN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +19.8% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +2.1% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -9.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +6.0% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -6.7% |
| 1 May 2025 | +3.0% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -3.0% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +2.7% |
Amazon.com at a glance
Amazon.com, Inc. operates a vast global retail enterprise, distributing consumer goods and subscription services through both its extensive online platforms and a network of physical stores across North America and internationally.
- Market value
- $2.69T
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $919.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 37
- Beta to the US market
- 1.50
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Amazon.com on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AMZN was $258.74. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $257.34, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Amazon.com's valuation
Is Amazon.com stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AMZN reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $257.34 a share against a last close of $251.52, a gap of +2.3%.
What is AMZN's fair value?
$257.34 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $171.60 to $377.95.
What price range does the model give AMZN?
$228.30 to $297.93 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Amazon.com report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMZN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.8% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMZN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.