NASDAQ: MELI · Specialty Retail
MercadoLibre (MELI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MercadoLibre (MELI) at $1,982.52 a share. The stock last closed at $1,876.04, which puts the model's fair value 5.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. MercadoLibre, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $1,802.65 to $1,982.52 (+10.0%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $1,876.04 is 5.7% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give MELI?
The calibrated range for MELI over 63 trading days is $1,655.68 to $2,243.55. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MELI's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1,288.96 to $2,961.88. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $1,982.52 a share on 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 3 Oct 2026 gave $1,802.65, meaning the fair value moved +10.0%, because the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $1,655.68 to $2,243.55, built from the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The model's overall quality score is 71 out of 100 against comparable companies. Earnings quality scored 100 with FCF / net income at 6.31x against a peer median of 1.77x, Growth quality scored 93 with Revenue growth, trailing, at 39.1% against a peer median of 10.8%, and Stability scored 100 with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y, at 1.6 pts against a peer median of 7.2 pts. The model compares it with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., eBay Inc., AutoZone, Inc., Williams-Sonoma, Inc., Ulta Beauty, Inc., Casey's General Stores, Inc., and Best Buy Co., Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MELI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
MercadoLibre's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MELI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.5% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MELI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MELI
How does MELI score on business quality?
MercadoLibre's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 53 | 14.4%ROIC | 19.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 6.31xFCF / net income | 1.77x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 93 | 39.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 21 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 2.81xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.2 pts |
How does MELI compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to MercadoLibre in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $81.96 | $91.64 | +11.8% | Low evidence grade |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $86.03 | $82.06 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | $116.41 | $121.54 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $2,893.30 | $3,027.00 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $239.98 | $236.22 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $579.00 | $584.67 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $641.74 | $629.68 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $87.96 | $110.13 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MELI, the peer-implied price, is $2,276.82 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
MercadoLibre at a glance
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America.
- Market value
- $95.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $51.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +44.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.06
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MELI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MercadoLibre on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MELI was $1,802.65. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $1,982.52, a change of +10.0%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MercadoLibre's valuation
Is MercadoLibre stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MELI reads as Fairly valued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $1,982.52 a share against a last close of $1,876.04, a gap of +5.7%.
What is MELI's fair value?
$1,982.52 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1,288.96 to $2,961.88.
What price range does the model give MELI?
$1,655.68 to $2,243.55 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does MercadoLibre report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MELI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.1% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MELI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MELI
The model holds no idea open on MELI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MELI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.