NASDAQ: ORLY · Specialty Retail
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) at $83.60 a share. The stock last closed at $89.99, which puts the model's fair value 7.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $85.43 to $83.60 (-2.1%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $89.99 is 7.1% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 3 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 7% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ORLY?
The calibrated range for ORLY over 63 trading days is $83.39 to $98.81. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ORLY's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $61.34 to $111.02. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialised tools, supplies and accessories across the United States, along with its subsidiary companies.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of O'Reilly at $83.60 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $85.43, so the fair value moved -2.1%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $83.56 to $100.32, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium, based on the completeness of the inputs, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of the range of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
O'Reilly scores 80 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, according to the model's composite of six factors. Profitability and stability each score 100. Return on invested capital is 36.3%, against a peer median of 12.3%. Five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility is 0.4 pts, against a peer median of 1.8 pts. The model compares the company with MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI), eBay Inc. (EBAY), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) and Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ORLY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
O'Reilly Automotive's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ORLY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ORLY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ORLY
How does ORLY score on business quality?
O'Reilly Automotive's overall quality score is 80 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 36.3%ROIC | 12.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | 0.78xFCF / net income | 0.44x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 61 | 6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 74 | 5.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | 2.42xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.87x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does ORLY compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to O'Reilly Automotive in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1,662.16 | $1,790.99 | +7.8% | Fairly valued |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | $118.62 | $125.91 | +6.1% | Fairly valued |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $3,200.00 | $3,270.93 | +2.2% | Fairly valued |
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $80.17 | $88.44 | +10.3% | Low evidence grade |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $253.70 | $243.55 | -4.0% | Fairly valued |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $634.89 | $655.25 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $665.39 | $646.83 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $93.87 | $120.86 | +28.8% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ORLY, the peer-implied price, is $69.63 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
O'Reilly Automotive at a glance
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States.
- Market value
- $71.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $20.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- -0.02
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ORLY was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices O'Reilly Automotive on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ORLY was $85.43. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $83.60, a change of -2.1%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about O'Reilly Automotive's valuation
Is O'Reilly Automotive stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ORLY reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $83.60 a share against a last close of $89.99, a gap of -7.1%.
What is ORLY's fair value?
$83.60 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $61.34 to $111.02.
What price range does the model give ORLY?
$83.39 to $98.81 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does O'Reilly Automotive report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ORLY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.6% around the report of 29 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ORLY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ORLY
The model holds no idea open on ORLY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ORLY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.