NYSE: CMG · Restaurants
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) at $31.03 a share. The stock last closed at $32.36, which puts the model's fair value 4.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $31.03 a share on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a +1.1% move from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $30.68. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $28.70 to $39.92, built around the price from the stock's own options and calibrated against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 66 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Yum! Brands, Inc., Darden Restaurants, Inc., Starbucks Corporation, Texas Roadhouse, Inc., McDonald's Corporation, Brinker International, Inc., and Dutch Bros Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from +15.0% to -19.2%, with a median size of 6.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CMG?
The calibrated range for CMG over 63 trading days is $28.70 to $39.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CMG's own options imply (47% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.44 to $42.14. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CMG score on business quality?
Chipotle Mexican Grill's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 74 | 19.4%ROIC | 18.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 89 | 1.11xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 43 | 5.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 74 | 6.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 54 | 2.28xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.50x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 49 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.5 pts |
How does CMG compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Chipotle Mexican Grill in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $136.12 | $132.50 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $200.33 | $214.99 | +7.3% | Fairly valued |
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $94.71 | $95.28 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $156.14 | $178.34 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $297.62 | $311.88 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MCD McDonald's Corporation | $231.89 | $236.08 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $202.00 | $244.11 | +20.8% | Undervalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
When does CMG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Chipotle Mexican Grill's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CMG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.4% over one month.
How CMG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +15.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +3.4% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +3.7% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -19.2% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -12.7% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +5.2% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -1.5% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -8.0% |
Chipotle Mexican Grill at a glance
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries.
- Market value
- $40.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 21
- Beta to the US market
- 0.72
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Chipotle Mexican Grill on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CMG was $30.68. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $31.03, a change of +1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Chipotle Mexican Grill's valuation
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CMG reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $31.03 a share against a last close of $32.36, a gap of -4.1%.
What is CMG's fair value?
$31.03 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.44 to $42.14.
What price range does the model give CMG?
$28.70 to $39.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Chipotle Mexican Grill report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CMG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -19.2% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CMG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.