NASDAQ: CBRL · Restaurants
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) at $45.56 a share. The stock last closed at $55.76, which puts the model's fair value 18.3% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. Its Cracker Barrel stores consist of restaurants with a gift shop.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $45.56 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $38.74, so the fair value moved +17.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $38.22 to $55.55, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score is 52 out of 100, against comparable companies. The comparable companies the model compares it with are BJ's Restaurants, Inc., The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, CAVA Group, Inc., and Dutch Bros Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, from the close before each report to the close after it, by a median size, ignoring direction, of 9.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CBRL?
The calibrated range for CBRL over 63 trading days is $38.22 to $55.55. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.03 to $73.17. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CBRL score on business quality?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 29 | -0.4%ROIC | 4.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 89 | 2.87xFCF / net income | 0.61x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 22 | -4.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 55 | 5.55xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.48x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does CBRL compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Cracker Barrel Old Country Store in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEN The Wendy's Company | $6.12 | $8.54 | +39.5% | Low evidence grade |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $61.93 | $73.14 | +18.1% | Undervalued |
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | $19.43 | $23.18 | +19.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $60.98 | $69.03 | +13.2% | Data under review |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $106.89 | $108.38 | +1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $109.65 | $100.18 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $54.41 | $41.16 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
When does CBRL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
On 2 Oct 2026 CBRL moved 7.8% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
How CBRL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | +14.0% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | -3.1% |
| 9 Jun 2026 | +30.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | +1.2% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | +5.0% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | -12.3% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | +52.1% |
| 6 Mar 2025 | +6.3% |
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at a glance
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. Its Cracker Barrel stores consist of restaurants with a gift shop.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cracker Barrel Old Country Store on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CBRL was $38.74. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $45.56, a change of +17.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's valuation
Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CBRL's fair value at $45.56 a share against a last close of $55.76, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CBRL's fair value?
$45.56 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.03 to $73.17.
What price range does the model give CBRL?
$38.22 to $55.55 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Cracker Barrel Old Country Store report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CBRL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +52.1% around the report of 5 Jun 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CBRL is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.