NYSE: YUM · Restaurants
Yum! Brands (YUM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Yum! Brands (YUM) at $132.50 a share. The stock last closed at $136.12, which puts the model's fair value 2.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Yum! Brands, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
YUM! Brands, Inc. is a leading global quick-service restaurant enterprise that focuses on the creation, management, and franchising of its restaurant concepts internationally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $132.50 a share for Yum! Brands, Inc. on 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $134.25, and the fair value moved -1.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $111.16 to $161.56, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 63 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. These comparable companies are Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., Darden Restaurants, Inc., Starbucks Corporation, Texas Roadhouse, Inc., Brinker International, Inc., McDonald's Corporation, and Dutch Bros Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports for Yum! Brands, Inc. were: 30 Jul 2026 +0.9%, 29 Apr 2026 +2.0%, 4 Feb 2026 +1.5%, 4 Nov 2025 +7.2%, 5 Aug 2025 -3.9%, 30 Apr 2025 +0.6%, 6 Feb 2025 +9.4%, and 5 Nov 2024 +1.2%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give YUM?
The calibrated range for YUM over 63 trading days is $111.16 to $161.56. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $92.05 to $182.31. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does YUM score on business quality?
Yum! Brands's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 60.1%ROIC | 15.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 30 | 0.76xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 68 | 8.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 2.4%Net buybacks / market value | 4.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 4.02xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.25x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does YUM compare with similar companies?
The companies in restaurants closest to Yum! Brands in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $32.36 | $31.03 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $200.33 | $214.99 | +7.3% | Fairly valued |
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $94.71 | $95.28 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $156.14 | $178.34 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $297.62 | $311.88 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $202.00 | $244.11 | +20.8% | Undervalued |
| MCD McDonald's Corporation | $231.89 | $236.08 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $38.67 | $36.09 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
When does YUM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Yum! Brands's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How YUM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +0.9% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +2.0% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +1.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +7.2% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -3.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +0.6% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +9.4% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +1.2% |
Yum! Brands at a glance
YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a leading global quick-service restaurant enterprise that focuses on the creation, management, and franchising of its restaurant concepts internationally.
- Market value
- $38.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Yum! Brands on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for YUM was $134.25. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $132.50, a change of -1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Yum! Brands's valuation
Is Yum! Brands stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, YUM reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $132.50 a share against a last close of $136.12, a gap of -2.7%.
What is YUM's fair value?
$132.50 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $92.05 to $182.31.
What price range does the model give YUM?
$111.16 to $161.56 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Yum! Brands report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has YUM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.4% around the report of 6 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for YUM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.